Last Thread of 2012

 Goodbye 2012

New Year's Eve

So is legislation

Monday Morning - Cliff Diving Eve

We Cliff Dive Tonight
(Bathing suit optional)

Weekend Thread - Fiscal Cliff Version

Simple, safe and effective.

Friday Afternoon

Just a comment cleaner... keepin' it lean :)

Friday Morning

SPX Daily/Weekly

SPX Daily

SPX Weekly

S&P Futures re-test

S&P Futures Hourly

The bears are re-testing that tail from the overnight swiper last week. Daily volume is pretty thin... and the ideal bullish reaction would be to not spend a lot of time in that 1391-1406ish zone (just poke around and get out). Current trade is about 1403-1404, with the LOD so far at 1401.75. With the high of the day session at 1418.50, that's a 16ish point range so far. That range seems a little wide given the intraday volume count so far, but December's are notorious for that. Personally, some of my biggest mistakes came from trades made in December, so be careful out there and don't try to force anything. Short term Sentimentrader indicators are looking ripe for buying.

Thursday Morning - Patent pending

Gator's Chart of the Day: IDCC

Interdigital Communications Corp. was my worst trade of 2011 and I refused to get back in during 2012.  I'm watching it again ...

The Trade
If I decide to enter I would not want to pay more than 42.  My stop would go just under the 50 day sma (40.42) and I would use the upper Bollinger band as the target to lighten up or exit the trade completely.  If the trade is stopped out quickly I would look for support and possible re-entry on a bounce from just above 38.

Wednesday Evening - SPX

SP-500 Daily Chart

Nothing very encouraging for a bull in that chart.  Here's a prediction: One more step to the 50 day and then a bounce that leads to a head first plunge through the 200 day.  Hope there's water in the pool.

Wednesday Afternoon - hIgh BeaMs illuminating

IBM Daily Chart (11:20AM)

IBM is one of the market telltale stocks and has been for decades.  It's telling you that if you're long you're wrong.  There's nothing bullish about this chart.  They do get a lot of business from government spending and it may be indicating what to expect for any business that is dependent on it.

Wednesday Morning - Adapting

Finally found the right adapter ...

Christmas

 

From all of us bloggerz to all of us other bloggerz.

Monday Evening ... Happy Holidays

Whatever your beliefs or lack thereof this is a time of year when the vast majority of the human race finds something to celebrate.  Hopefully we will see a healing of rifts between groups with disparate views and a concerted effort to make our world a better place for this and the coming generations.

Monday Morning - All Aboard

Gator's Chart of the Day: GBX

Carl Icahn liked it but the board of directors didn't like him (or his offer) and Icahn unloaded his stock on Friday.  The stock was flat after making a low (16.09) in the 5 minute candle that completed at 10:25.  The tallest 3 bars on the5 minute chart were printed at 10:15, 10:25 and 10:30.  The stock traded sideways for the rest of the day.  With a forward P/E under 7 and good demand for railcars I think this is an opportunity. Considering the short interest (12%+ with 5 days to cover) I'll be watching this closely.

5 Minute Chart

This is definitely a candidate for a 59 minute trade.  I will be watching for a green candle on the 3 or 5 minute chart and that will mark the entry and a stop goes just underneath the low of the day.  I'll add quickly on continued strength on good volume.

Warning: This trade may fall apart very quickly and there is no nearby support to slow the stock's price decline.

Weekend Thread

I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing weekend.....
and a very Happy Holiday season!!

Friday Afternoon - Looks bad, even for Santa

The market didn't like the apparent loss of solidarity among the house republicans.  After an attempt to rally following the opening 45 minutes things have deteriorated even more and the volatility of quadruple witching with a dash of Mayan optimism (tongue in cheek)  has things headed south as lunch approaches. 

If the market is anticipating the democrats will now be able to force the President's package on the republicans what does that say about our economy's future?

Friday morning

Thursday evening

Thursday Afternoon - PLT still looks good

Daily Chart of PLT (10:30AM)

I mentioned Plantronics on Tuesday afternoon and I think it still looks good.  It made a strong move Tuesday and the Wednesday doji (indecision) may be the only pause before it tests the August high.  The dividend yield is only 1% so that's not a reason to own it but it does not report until Jan 29 so there is time for some price appreciation.  It's hard to see in this chart but the stock is above the lateral white line and as long as it stays up there I think it's all good.

Thursday Morning

Tom and I went out last night and ... long story short, there's no chart this morning.

Wednesday Evening

Market delivers a late surprise.

We saw a bit of a spittin' contest from D.C. on the FC issue.  Downside volume picked up into the close as traders decided to take some risk off after putting 100 points on the SP-500 since mid November.  Monthly expiry is Friday and we were due for a surprise this week.  Maybe that's what we got.

Wednesday Afternoon

Attention to detail on Air Force 1

Not a lot of rumors from D.C. in spite of CNBC's efforts to stir up something.  The market is resting today and that's probably a good thing.

Wednesday Morning - Realogy

Gator's Chart of the Day: RLGY

I saw Karen Finerman talking about this stock.  She's a fundie girl and she likes it so I'm not even looking at the balance sheet.  This is purely a chart play for me and it's the same Fitz IPO strategy we've executed for profits before.

The Trade
The theory is there is no resistance as the stock has cleared the short term high (39.77) of the initial offering.  It made that move on Tuesday.  The stock is above the upper Bollinger band so don't go crazy here but it should be alright to take a quarter or third of your desired position.  The stop would be a little below the 39.77 level.  If you keep your initial position relatively small your stop can be looser so figure how much you are willing to risk when you make that initial buy and set your stop accordingly.  You can continue to add if the stock continues to close higher than it opens.  Keep moving your stop up as you add.  Once you have your full position on it may be wise to stagger your stops such that the stock will help you with profit taking unless you decide to sell it all.

SPX Daily/Weekly

SPX Daily

SPX Weekly

Tuesday Afternoon

Daily Chart: PLT (11:15AM)

Here's a stock that's been making a nice move higher and broke above a long term trend line.  There is also significant short interest according to Finviz.  The short ratio is 13.76 with 5.57% of the float short.  The ttmP/E is 14.53 and forward P/E is 12.17.  Options are terribly illiquid so I won't be trading but if you like the common this one could be for you.

I used their products for many (25+) years and they were the market leader.  I believe they still are.

Tuesday Morning

Gator's Chart of the Day: DISCK

Discovery Communications Inc is one stock I've never owned.  I like much of their content and MythBusters is one of my favorites. 

The white resistance line is the all-time high (58.29) and it's within 10% of the 50 day sma so it's really not extended.  (The stock also has ticker DISCA and the chart is very similar.)  Volume has been very strong with Monday hitting 162% of the 50 day sma.

The Trade
I see a couple of ways to enter the trade.  Either buy the breakout if it clears the all-time high or buy on a pullback and bounce from closer to the 50 day sma.  I prefer the pullback but that may not happen anytime soon.

Monday evening

Monday Afternoon - Superman stock?

Daily chart of LL (11:10AM)

If you believe that housing has bottomed and that new construction is now turning up from the very low levels it has been posting for .... oh .... years ... then this may be a good time to buy some LL.  It's come back to a longer term trend line here and is showing a buy signal on the daily stochastic.  Volume needs to be a bit higher but this one is worth watching.  I nibbled some Feb55 calls @ 1.35.

By the way, if you wonder what the connection to Superman is it's the initials LL.

Monday Morning - Hold the ForTiNeT

Gator's Chart of the Day: FTNT

Fortinet has now moved into the gap created when the market didn't like the earnings report.  Friday's open and close were both above 20.81 (beginning of the gap) and volume was 30% higher than Thursday and 10% above the 50 day moving average.  Buyers are coming.  The stochastic is in overbought territory at 89.05 but strong stocks stay overbought as they make their move higher.

I'm in the trade using January calls and I'm looking for the stock to test the top of the gap before they expire.  I'm not expecting the move to be without a red candle or two but I plan to hold a core position as long as the stock remains in the gap.

Weekend Thread

There may not be any snow on the ground or on the "tree" but Christmas is just 11 days away (and this one is nearly in the books.)  If Christmas just isn't your thing then I hope you do have something to celebrate.  You can always hug an elf.

Friday Afternoon - AAPL's next hit product

Ergonomic keyboard for pirates

Many of the analysts think Apple TV is the next big thing but that's not it.  This picture was smuggled (of course it was it's for pirates) out of Foxconn this week. 

Friday morning

Evan enjoying the season

Thursday Evening

Toes!!! Is that you?!!!

It's tough to trade a market that is jukin' and jivin' to every word coming from some mealy-mouthed politician or even a rumor that one of them is going to meet with another one.  Soooooo ..... remember ..... you don't have to.

Naz Futures Inverse Head and Shoulders

Naz Futures Daily (Dec)

I noticed this potential setup and thought it was worth posting. I'm not sure if there is already a lot of chatter about it.... I'm thinking the less chatter there is, the more likely that it can play out. This is the December contract that expires next Friday. Since we are so close to expiration, there isn't much difference between these numbers and the spot index (NDX).

The Head is about 2500, with a Neckline at about 2700... which puts a target of 2900. Under 2625ish and it starts to look iffy. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Thursday Morning

Only you can hit the buy and sell buttons but you don't have to do either one.  Trade 'em well or don't trade 'em at all. 

Wednesday evening

'Tis the season

Wednesday Afternoon - My accountant on halloween

My daughter the accountant 1987

She wasn't sure whether she was having fun or not.  Kind of like us taxpayers as we approach the cliff.  It turned out well as she filled her pumpkin twice and people loved her costume.  Maybe it will work out for us too.

Wednesday Morning - Inverse H & S

Gator's Chart of the Day: FTNT

Internet security (or lack of it) could get a lot more attention as soon as the fiscal cliff is in the rear view mirror.  I keep checking on a few of my favorites (FIRE, PANW and FTNT) and this one is looking good.  It's not as obvious in this view but there is a head and shoulders in that section of the chart following the ugly gap down.  The measured move yields an upside target where the top white line in also marks the top of the gap.  Coincidence?

The Trade
There could be a move back down to test the neckline or it could be a move straight up from here.  (I see the 50 day sma just above current price but it really has not been relevant.)  Unless the market is doing something strange I'll be looking for an entry as soon as I get a feel for open and find a strike I like.  January is probably the month and either 19 or 20 looks to be the most likely selection.  The minimum target price on the stock is 22.90.

Tuesday Evening - Duct tape can handle it.

Looks good from here.

Duct tape is strong, durable and trusted for mission critical situations.  If it moves and should not then duct tape can probably fix it.  But just the same, I'm glad I don't do business travel anymore.

Tuesday Afternoon

Looks like he's a long investor today.

For no particular reason the market is zooming today.  I really don't think it is because of the outstanding interview work in D.C. this morning.  (I felt bad for Becky ...)  Anyway, if you have a stock that is not going up today you need to ask yourself why it's not and do you really want it.  If you can't give an honest and compelling answer then I have a suggestion.  Dump the pig!!!

Tuesday Morning - A channel trade with a death cross

Gator's Chart of the Day: FIO

Fuison-IO is approaching an interesting point on the chart.  It could be that both the impending death cross and price hitting the lateral support line (white) will occur simultaneously.  I'm still holding a few January calls that I picked up on November 20th for a trade up to the 200 day.  So why didn't I sell them when it hit its head and started back down?  Well I did sell almost all I had but these were just back in a corner and I was focused on other things (like FSLR. lol)

The stock is not at a right here right now point but you may want to set an alert.  I am expecting it to bounce from 21.30 but I won't be adding until I see the bounce.  If it fails I'll cuss and dump the last of those calls.  If it does bounce I'll re-load and look for a move back to the 200 day and maybe higher.

Monday Evening - Are you an apocaloptimist?

All three major indexes finished in the green.  Somehow it didn't feel like it. 

So you think you can trade ...

I found an interesting online stock trading game some years ago and played around with it some.  The results were quite discouraging.  Recently tried it again and I’ve either gotten better at this, or simply got very lucky.

Here’s the link if you want to give it a try :
[ this seems to format best using IE, ugh ]

Chart game

When playing Chartgame, the computer will present you with a random historical stock chart of an actual large cap (S&P 500) security, without telling you which company and time period the chart represents.

You are then given the opportunity to reveal the stock chart one day at a time, with an option to buy or sell short the stock at the next day’s open.  Once in a position, you can advance one day at a time until you decide to sell or cover, or until one year has elapsed.  You also have the option to skip to the next chart if the current one doesn’t seem interesting.

Here are my results from a recent session :

				Player performance
	Security	Time period		Days in	Cash in/out	Gain
	Equifax Inc.  (EFX)	Nov 20, 2007 Feb 07, 2008		43/53	$10,000.00 $9,587.68	-4.12%
	Eastman Kodak Co.  (EK)	Sep 19, 2005 Apr 25, 2006		109/150	$9,587.68 $10,821.74	+12.87%
	Dow Jones & Co. Inc.  (DJ)	Jul 08, 2003 Oct 02, 2003		18/61	$10,821.74 $10,533.66	-2.66%
	Altera Corp.  (ALTR)	Aug 31, 2006 Mar 19, 2007		92/135	$10,533.66 $12,172.23	+15.56%
	Aetna Inc.  (AET)	Jul 01, 2004 Oct 12, 2004		32/71	$12,172.23 $13,148.88	+8.02%
	Best Buy Co. Inc.  (BBY)	Jul 14, 1997 Sep 24, 1997		19/51	$13,148.88 $17,063.20	+29.77%
	OfficeMax Inc.  (OMX)	Dec 18, 2003 Feb 04, 2004		10/31	$17,063.19 $18,555.52	+8.75%
	State Street Corp.  (STT)	Feb 25, 1999 Jun 03, 1999		48/68	$18,555.52 $20,946.55	+12.89%
	Alberto-Culver Co.  (ACV)	Jun 10, 2005 Mar 27, 2006		197/199	$20,946.54 $20,900.42	-0.22%
	Totals:			568/2390	$20,900.42	+109.0%

That’s not too shabby.  I might have to start trading stocks again, lol.

It’s important to note that it’s just a simulation.  Without real money on the line, there’s not much psychological pressure.  But still, I think it may be a useful training tool.  It will be interesting to see if I can come up with decent results in subsequent sessions.

It’s also important to note that I was very selective, using the “next chart” button whenever a chart didn’t grab me.  If it looked ok, but not set up properly, I would not be shy about advancing day by day until it set up or I missed the trade.   Also, I did no short sales in this session, recalling that shorts tended to hurt me in previous attempts.

Monday Morning - Resource Week

TCK Weekly Chart

A quick check of the weekly chart shows the stock has been gathering strength since September.  This is evidenced in the stochastic.  Since early October the price has steadily moved up and for the past three weeks price has been climbing on increasing volume.  There is still room for a 25% move to the upside with only one level of serious resistance.  I'm interested.

Gator's Chart of the Day: TCK

Moving to the daily chart I am looking for an entry.  Friday had big volume and a red candle suggesting the stock is not quite ready to make the breakout move.  I'll be looking for a pullback and bounce from 34.40 or maybe even 33.60.  The other possibility is taking a small bite on a move above 35.60 with good volume. 

If the entry is on the bounce I will look to take a 1/3 position and add twice with the last buy coming on the break above 36 and a short term target of  38.  The stop would be back in congestion around 33.25.

If the entry is on the breakout (pullback is complete with Friday's red candle) then I look to take only a 1/4 position and the stop would be about 34.20 which is just under Friday's low.  Filling the position will require attention.

Weekend Thread

A US Marine stands at attention with the USS Arizona memorial 
in the background on Pearl Harbor Day.

Friday Afternoon

Intersection or message from D.C.?

The continuing lack of serious bargaining or negotiating and the total failure in the leadership category is sending a message to us, the bill payers.  It's on the sign.