Monday Evening - Are you an apocaloptimist?

All three major indexes finished in the green.  Somehow it didn't feel like it. 

So you think you can trade ...

I found an interesting online stock trading game some years ago and played around with it some.  The results were quite discouraging.  Recently tried it again and I’ve either gotten better at this, or simply got very lucky.

Here’s the link if you want to give it a try :
[ this seems to format best using IE, ugh ]

Chart game

When playing Chartgame, the computer will present you with a random historical stock chart of an actual large cap (S&P 500) security, without telling you which company and time period the chart represents.

You are then given the opportunity to reveal the stock chart one day at a time, with an option to buy or sell short the stock at the next day’s open.  Once in a position, you can advance one day at a time until you decide to sell or cover, or until one year has elapsed.  You also have the option to skip to the next chart if the current one doesn’t seem interesting.

Here are my results from a recent session :

				Player performance
	Security	Time period		Days in	Cash in/out	Gain
	Equifax Inc.  (EFX)	Nov 20, 2007 Feb 07, 2008		43/53	$10,000.00 $9,587.68	-4.12%
	Eastman Kodak Co.  (EK)	Sep 19, 2005 Apr 25, 2006		109/150	$9,587.68 $10,821.74	+12.87%
	Dow Jones & Co. Inc.  (DJ)	Jul 08, 2003 Oct 02, 2003		18/61	$10,821.74 $10,533.66	-2.66%
	Altera Corp.  (ALTR)	Aug 31, 2006 Mar 19, 2007		92/135	$10,533.66 $12,172.23	+15.56%
	Aetna Inc.  (AET)	Jul 01, 2004 Oct 12, 2004		32/71	$12,172.23 $13,148.88	+8.02%
	Best Buy Co. Inc.  (BBY)	Jul 14, 1997 Sep 24, 1997		19/51	$13,148.88 $17,063.20	+29.77%
	OfficeMax Inc.  (OMX)	Dec 18, 2003 Feb 04, 2004		10/31	$17,063.19 $18,555.52	+8.75%
	State Street Corp.  (STT)	Feb 25, 1999 Jun 03, 1999		48/68	$18,555.52 $20,946.55	+12.89%
	Alberto-Culver Co.  (ACV)	Jun 10, 2005 Mar 27, 2006		197/199	$20,946.54 $20,900.42	-0.22%
	Totals:			568/2390	$20,900.42	+109.0%

That’s not too shabby.  I might have to start trading stocks again, lol.

It’s important to note that it’s just a simulation.  Without real money on the line, there’s not much psychological pressure.  But still, I think it may be a useful training tool.  It will be interesting to see if I can come up with decent results in subsequent sessions.

It’s also important to note that I was very selective, using the “next chart” button whenever a chart didn’t grab me.  If it looked ok, but not set up properly, I would not be shy about advancing day by day until it set up or I missed the trade.   Also, I did no short sales in this session, recalling that shorts tended to hurt me in previous attempts.

Monday Morning - Resource Week

TCK Weekly Chart

A quick check of the weekly chart shows the stock has been gathering strength since September.  This is evidenced in the stochastic.  Since early October the price has steadily moved up and for the past three weeks price has been climbing on increasing volume.  There is still room for a 25% move to the upside with only one level of serious resistance.  I'm interested.

Gator's Chart of the Day: TCK

Moving to the daily chart I am looking for an entry.  Friday had big volume and a red candle suggesting the stock is not quite ready to make the breakout move.  I'll be looking for a pullback and bounce from 34.40 or maybe even 33.60.  The other possibility is taking a small bite on a move above 35.60 with good volume. 

If the entry is on the bounce I will look to take a 1/3 position and add twice with the last buy coming on the break above 36 and a short term target of  38.  The stop would be back in congestion around 33.25.

If the entry is on the breakout (pullback is complete with Friday's red candle) then I look to take only a 1/4 position and the stop would be about 34.20 which is just under Friday's low.  Filling the position will require attention.