Wednesday Evening

S&P Futures Hourly

The bulls put up a fight again on Monday-Tuesday at the red zone (1300-1308). Today they were able to push up and hold the 1320ish level... and I'll be watching that level closely if we get some downside action tomorrow. The 1340ish level is the next major resistance area above... and the volume profile suggests it might be tough for the bulls the first time up there.

Wednesday Afternoon

Parabolic - par·a·bol·ic

PCYC Daily Chart

Enjoy it while it lasts.  Seems like a reasonably tight stop on at least part of a long position is appropriate. 

Wednesday Morning

Gator's Chart of the Day: UPL

Lots of chatter on the blog about natty gas in general and UPL specifically.  If that wasn't enough it appears that Tim Collins may have mentioned it in RM Pro (that's unconfirmed) but I know he gave Cramer some charts because JJC used them on his show Tuesday night.  I confess I half payed attention and Cramer did a decent job of explaining Tim's work.  All of this to say there is plenty of hype around this one so just be aware of that.

The chart is confirming UPL has bottomed and is now starting a new uptrend.  This is evidenced by the turn in both the 20 and 50 day simple moving averages and now the 20 has moved above the 50.  When choosing an entry, adding to the position or even holding on for a move higher it's important to pay attention to natural gas prices.

The Trade
Starting a position right here and right now seems reasonable (check natgas price to be sure it's not moving down) and a stop just under Friday's low of 20.37 should be adequate wiggle room without being too costly.  Since this would be a breakout trade you may want to add quickly if the stock is moving higher and volume is strong.  If volume dries up the breakout is likely to fail.  Keep moving your stops up so that a sudden shift in commodity prices that may be triggered by a strong $US spike won't wipe out your profits.