SPX Daily / Weekly

SPX Daily

There are 2 gaps that I see on the S&P500 daily chart. I've marked them with green lines. One is from 1672.40-1674.32, and the other is from 1688.73-1691.70. That second one was filled on Friday (with the LOD coming in at 1687.11) and correlated to a 1682ish gap fill in the S&P futures as well. The only recent gap I see that is still open on the cash index is the one at 1672ish. The bears would have to put some work in to break down below the 20 day at 1684ish and also the 50 day at 1680ish. 

SPX Weekly

Not much to report about the weekly chart. It looks iffy on both sides, so I decided to pull up the COT data. Interesting surprise:

This is the "All-Index Commercial Traders Position" from Sentimentrader.com. It's showing a combination of all the equity index futures positions within the commercial traders group, typically considered the "smart money". The reason it is surprising is that commercials have aggressively increased short exposure across the board this last week and a half, and it's absolutely something to be aware of. It has me rethinking a lot of things right now, first one being that I think I might owe baron some cranberry sauce. I thought the bulls would make a run to 1800 by thanksgiving, but this puts some serious doubt in my mind about that. I am going to be digging deeper into a few things and will keep you posted on my homework.

On another note, please see the comments below for some info related to comments going forward.