Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Market recap

The bulls did a pretty good job of keeping the selling contained today. S&P futures closed down a few points on the day, and Naz futures closed down about 4. Short term indicators are getting closer to looking ripe for buying, but there are some longer term indicators suggesting a high amount of risk on the long side here. 1415-1417 remains a tough level for the S&P futures bulls. If the bears follow through tomorrow, 1400-1403 (20day WMA) is the first major level of support I'll be watching. Naz futures first level of support on a break below 2767 comes in at about 2748ish... and then the 20day WMA at 2725ish. 

Gold futures finally broke higher from 1620 and are pushing towards 1650. I'm expecting some tough resistance between 1650-1675 the first time up. Euro futures broke away from the 1.2400 level and are on track for an inverse head and shoulders target of 1.2650ish. 

If we are seeing the beginning stages of the COT extreme positions being unwound, I'm expecting equity index futures down, VIX futures up, and Euro futures up over the course of the next 2-4 weeks. 

On a more relaxing note, I found a cool sunset photo from Australia... 

Relax :)

This could be an uggsy day ...

DECK Daily Chart (11:35AM)
Deckers has definitely put in a bottom (a double at that) and has been moving higher for a couple of weeks.   I looks good again today but I think it is ready to rest a bit.  A couple of days of consolidation would be healthy.  A pullback to 48.50 and a bounce would be even better.  Keep an eye on this one.

SRZ Breakout


SRZ has been breaking out for some time.    One to keep an eye on for a pullback and bounce.  I keep waiting but it does not happen.



The weekly chart shows a volatility squeeze. After gathering itself at the 200 period ma it broke out.  After a bounce off the 50 dma it looks like SRZ wants to continue to go up.