Friday, August 31, 2012

Weekend Thread

S&P Futures Daily
Today was the second day the bears were able to close under the 20day WMA line (currently 1406ish). That's potentially a red flag for the bullish case. You can see that since June, we haven't seen more than 3 closes in a row below that moving average. It's something to be aware of considering today was day number 2. I'll be watching the 1406-1412 area closely next week.

The latest COT report is still showing commercials are heavy net short equity index futures. They've reduced some short exposure in the Naz futures, but added more to the short side in Dow futures. Basically, this data is suggesting a VERY HIGH AMOUNT OF RISK on the long side right now.

10YR Treasury Futures Daily
Treasury futures (Sep) have pushed all the way back up to the 135'000 area (1.55ish yield). You can see the importance of this resistance level and I'm curious to see what's about to happen. December contract roll started today so I'm thinking some of today's move was amplified because of that. Throw in a little Jackson hole jibber jabber and the bulls were stampeding into the December contract. The interesting thing is, we aren't that far from the highs now. Daily indicators are looking a little stretched up here, but the bulls could just keep pushing if equity futures start to roll over next week.

I have no positions in equity futures right now. I'm guessing the short side is going to work better for September, but am trying to keep an open mind about it.

I found this video of relaxing sounds to get the mind right. I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing weekend!


Yes it's Friday ... how about a book?


I need something on Japanese candlesticks or maybe Fibonaccis for Dummies.

NGVC Chart of the Day

NGVC


There is a variety of ways to draw your lines but support is $20.50 which is about where it closed Wednesday.  The stock is now about $1 from support and about .50 from the all time high set yesterday at $22.  You could wait for a pullback, buy when it hits it's all time high or buy now with a stop just below $20.50. 

The chart below is a daily chart. I am expecting a breakout in the next few sessions. 



Thursday, August 30, 2012

High end european transportation

Classy hood ornament.  Smooth ride.
Volume was up a bit.  So was the VXX.  Clint Eastwood produces, directs and acts tonight.

I think that just about covers the positives for today.

Slow day so ... here's how dogs work.


Traders are not doing a lot and volume shows it.  We may see some more volatility this afternoon as they try to justify their paychecks.  In the mean time here is one of nature's mysteries explained.

Chicken Checkup

Gator's Chart of the Day: BWLD

On 8/14 BWLD was chosen for the Chart of the Day.  That's where the white oval is on today's chart.  Below is the trade information from that post.

The Trade

Since the market is holding up I think a position could be started now with a stop below the long term trend line just under 70. If the analysts are right about 86 as a target, that presents a risk of about 4.3% down and a reward of 18% up. It probably won't be a fast trade. Might take all season.


The trade is now at an interesting juncture.  Price is just clearing the 200 day with the 50 day on a collision course from above.  It is likely that we could see a pause or even a small pullback in the next session or two.  That would be a good thing.  Why?  Because I missed the entry.  LOL  If I get a second chance I will correct that.

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Low Volume Day ... Again

Daily Chart of SPY
Looking at the volume bar you would think it was a short session today.  Nope.  Just not much action.  If you have something that needs to get done during market hours, this week would be a good time to take care of it. 
How many stockbrokers does it take to change a light bulb?
 "My God! It burnt out!! Sell all my G.E. stock NOW!!!"
 Two. One to take out the bulb and drop it, and the other to try and sell it before it crashes (knowing that it's already burned out).


Dont be the guy that buys the lightbulb!

Is that a 59er in a pair of Brown Shoes?

Gator's Chart of the Day: BWS
Brown Shoe reported before market on Tuesday and gapped up on what looked like a big beat.  The conference call and failure to raise the top end of guidance quickly reversed the stock and it traded down hard until about 2:30.  It did recover into the close so it could be a 59 minute style trade.

The Trade
As trading begins you are watching for the opening print and the low. Make note of both of these figures.  I like 3 or 5 minute charts for this trade.  When the first green candle prints hit the buy button.  Since this is a bounce trade it is expected that the low of the day has already been made and the stop should be just below that.

This trade will likely move very quickly so be ready to add. If the stock has not yet cleared the opening print then wait for it to clear that level and then add aggressively. If it continues to move higher then fill out your position if you have not already done that with the first two buys. As each successive buy is made place a stop just under that buy point and watch.

When volume begins to slow be ready to take some profits (I like to sell 1/3) but let the rest run. Unless you want to hold the stock longer than today I think it's best to move your lowest stop up to insure you will have profits.

As the name of the technique suggests this trade is likely over in the first hour as the sellers have dumped and the bounce buyers have gotten their fill. I have used this method many times and it's one of my favorites. The risk is very low if you put that stop in as soon as you make the first buy and then respect it.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Inkjets are so yesterday

Lexmark not selling latest ink jet printers
Judging from the example above it's a good thing LXK is getting out of the business.

More churning for the market today.  Between the endless updates of weather in New Orleans and non-news from the RNC in Tampa there wasn't a whole lot going on today.  The SPY traded less than $1 from high to low.  Guess what?  Tomorrow is likely to look a lot like today.  If you have some business to take care of away from your trading turret this is a good week to take care of it.

Water ... water ....

AWR Daily Chart (11:35AM)
Water stocks have gotten some attention in the IBD print edition this week.  American States Water Co (AWR) is one that has been mentioned positively.  It could be a good buy right here right now but do be aware the CEO did some selling (about $1M) last week at an average price of about 43.90.  A VP also sold $900K just below that.  I don't think you have to rush right in but it is at a decent place to take a nibble.  I have no position.

All Done Sellin' Kids?

Gator's Chart of the Day: ADSK
Autodesk Inc reported earnings last week and the market didn't take too kindly to what the company had to say.  In fact it resulted in a good ol' puke fest on incredibly high volume.  The question is ... are they done?  It looks like they could be and buyers are picking up a value.  This is a tech stock with a forward P/E under 14, no debt and very attractive margins.  You can tell by the "open" candle printed on Friday that the stock opened very near the low of the day and traded higher.  I think this warrants a closer look at Monday's trading.

ADSK 5 Minute Chart (8/27)
The stock opened higher but immediately reversed lower and traded down to the low of the day by 9:50.  From there it rebounded and traded in a tight range for the middle part of the day and then closed near the high with strong volume in the last 10 minutes.  I think the selling is done.

The Trade
My thesis is that 30 is now solid support and if the price falls below that by more than a few pennies for more than a few minutes then I'm wrong and I'm gone.  So I would look to take a 1/2 position near the open as long as it's above 30 and my stop would be around 29.85.  Assuming the stock moves up I would buy the other 1/2 position when it clears 31.20 (Friday's high) and place a stop around 30.90 for the second buy.  The minimum target price is the 50 day simple moving average but I would not sell all at that level.  I would be inclined to take a little off the table and put a trailing stop on the rest and see if the stock can make the 200 day mark.  The risk should be about 2.2% and the reward at the 200 day would be about 16%.

Monday, August 27, 2012

Not much happenin'

Apple was electric at the open but the sizzle wore off fairly quickly and the stock traded down for the rest of the session.  Still, it closed up nearly 2% so that's better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

Volume for the SPY was barely 2/3 of the 10 day moving average and about half of the 50 day.  Probably not going to see much for the rest of the week either with many traders waiting on Ben.  Of course there is always Europe that alternates between saved and finished and China can move our markets if they move their reserve requirements.

Near Field Communications - NXPI

NXPI Daily Chart (11:40AM)
 
Those applications that allow check out by waving your smart phone at the register utilize near field communications.  NXPI makes the chips that support this capability.  The chart is a bit sloppy but price has been moving generally upward since June and you can draw support/resistance several ways.  I like it and jojo has been in and out and in.  It's looking good today.

Monday morning


At the time of this writing (9 p.m. Sunday), futures are up a bit, the Euro is flat, AUDJPY (my favorite measure of "risk") is ... meh.

Friday, August 24, 2012

Weekend Thread


In case you hadn't noticed gas prices are very high.  Don't expect this to get any better (I mean lower prices) anytime soon.  Enjoy your weekend.

Stops 1


Where, oh where do you set your stop loss order ?  I have come to believe that this is as much art as science.  It also one of the most important factors affecting your profitability.

Paraphrasing Einstein : stops should be as tight as possible, but no tighter.

How many times have you gotten snagged out on a stop only to see the stock reverse and then move in your direction ?  How many times have you cursed the evil market makers for gunning your stop ?  Well quit thinking like that !  It’s not going to help you make money.  Yes, the big boys push things around, but it’s mostly just the market seeking liquidity (supply and demand areas).  This is something we just have to deal with.

Here are some BAD places to put your stops :

Inside of current congestion area (overlapping bars).  Helloo, it’s bouncing around in there.

Some arbitrary dollar or percent amount away from your entry.  The market neither knows nor cares what your entry was.

Your breakeven point.  See preceding.

“Too near” the prior high or low.  Everybody else has their orders there.  You have just become a potential source of liquidity.

Some characteristics of a GOOD place to put a stop :

Protects against the maximum allowed loss as determined before the trade was entered.  Which is the point for an initial stop, right ?  (subsequent stops, if any, should always be tighter than the initial)

Is based on market price structure (support and resistance).

Has a little “wiggle room”.

Is in an area which “should not” be (re)visited if the trade is going to work out.

More to come, but that’s enough preachin’ for one day.


Friday Morning


Hopefully gator survived :)

Thursday, August 23, 2012

SPX & NDX

SPX Daily
The bears finally stepped up today and pushed the SPX down to the 1400 level. This is a tough spot.... on one hand we are at potential support, and anyone who missed the rally up to the highs will be anxious to get involved. 10yr futures rallied up to the high area of the breakdown zone (1.65ish% yield) and never did push above it while S&P futures were pushing into the lows of the day (that's potentially bullish). Short term indicators are also very close to looking ripe for buying.

On the other hand, there are still a lot of intermediate term indicators that are suggesting higher risk is on the long side. I don't get the feeling that we've seen any kind of washout, and I'm not even sure if today qualifies as a decent shakeout. It seems like the Naz Hundo (NDX) is similar to a tree full of bulls that have yet to feel much of a breeze. That could probably be taken bullishly too though, as AAPL and GOOG have barely budged in the last few days.

NDX Daily
When I look at this NDX chart, I get the impression we could see more of a shakeout. 2725 is a high volume zone that would be the first level of potential support if the bears push down again. That would probably coincide with AAPL testing the 630-640 breakout level... and could provide a decent bullish setup.  

S&P futures Hourly

S&P futures Hourly
It looks pretty sloppy, but I see a head and shoulders on that chart that measures to 1392-1395. A quick zip up above 1410 would invalidate it... and that's only about 5 points up from here. Whatever happens, it should be an interesting day.

HuSsY in a tight skirt

Gator's Chart of the Day: HSY
You probably figured out that HuSsY is The Hershey Company but what about the tight skirt?  Check out the Bollinger bands.  They are extremely tight with a width of only 2.2% of the 20 day simple moving average.  (Reminds me of Carol Burnett playing Mrs. Wiggins.)  With the 50 day sma pressuring from below it looks to me like the price is headed higher.

HSY reported earnings before market on 7/26 and the green arrow points to the gap up awarded by investors.  The stock has been basing since then with the skirt getting ever tighter even though an all-time high (73.16) was printed last Wednesday.  This is not a cheap stock.  The forward P/E is 20 and the PEG is nearly 3 but it has good margins and a dividend yield of 2.1%

The Trade
This is a stock that is well suited for a longer term hold rather than a quick trade.  It can be bought right now in anticipation of an upside resolution to the volatility squeeze.  I think it makes sense to sell upside calls against the common.  As of Wednesday's close an October 75 call would collect $50/contract (100 shares is a contract) and if the stock is called away your annualized return is over 16%.  At December expiration if the stock is not called away you have the $50 and the 2.1% (annualized) dividend.  Sell February calls and repeat as long as you like.

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Gold resistance

Gold Futures Daily
Gold futures have finally made a push higher on the daily chart and are now heading into a potential resistance zone between 1650-1675.

Edit: A couple of thoughts (ramblings) on the market: I thought we were starting to see a potential breakdown in the correlation between Gold / Euro / SPX. Gold and the Euro have moved up while the SPX has basically stayed flat. It could just be some catch up action by Gold and the Euro though..... considering they were lagging before. Now that both of them are at potential resistance areas, I'm confused as to what comes next. 1650-1675 on Gold futures and 1.2550-1.2650 on Euro futures are likely to be difficult resistance on the daily chart timeframe. If they pull back from this area, does the SPX pull back also? I keep thinking we will see a deeper correction in equity futures, and am currently short up to my eyeballs. I'm short S&P futures at 1414 with a hard stop now set at 1418ish. I'm also short Naz futures at 2766ish with a hard stop set at 2806ish. 10yr & 30yr Treasury futures have rallied up to their breakdown area from last week. 10yr futures have pushed further up into that zone, making me wonder if the breakdown was just one big shakeout. If that's the case, we should see equity futures move down tomorrow and Friday. One thing I am 100% certain of is that I have no idea what's about to happen... stops are in and my brain is out.

10year futures resistance

10year Treasury Futures 30min
The Treasury futures bulls are bumping up against the first level of potential resistance here at 133'055. Short term indicators are looking ripe for buying on S&P futures as they get closer to the 1400-1403 area. I'm watching to see if the bulls can produce a bounce off this short term setup in S&P futures.

Some burned and some thick and some nu ...

Gator's Chart of the Day: NUS
Somebody call Herb Greenberg and give him this website's address.  I'm sure he would want to chime in on this one.  Here's my take on Nu Skin Enterprises Inc.

It's not a scam.  They have products (quality ones from what I here from friends and relatives) and incredible margins with $385M in cash on the balance sheet.  That's 6.44/share and the forward P/E is under 12 with a PEG under 1.  The stock got whacked (I think bushwhacked) and it fell down to solid support at 40.  It was up Tuesday on heavier than average volume while the rest of the market was having a red candle day.

The Trade
It's buyable under 43 with a stop just under 40 so the risk is well under 8%.  I think it can trade back to the 200 day simple moving average (about 49 when it gets there) with a pause as it encounters the 50 day along the way.  My minimum target is 50 so it should give about 19%+ upside.  If you have some patience I think you can get your entry around 41.50 and that would be really nice with a tight stop.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Market recap

The bulls did a pretty good job of keeping the selling contained today. S&P futures closed down a few points on the day, and Naz futures closed down about 4. Short term indicators are getting closer to looking ripe for buying, but there are some longer term indicators suggesting a high amount of risk on the long side here. 1415-1417 remains a tough level for the S&P futures bulls. If the bears follow through tomorrow, 1400-1403 (20day WMA) is the first major level of support I'll be watching. Naz futures first level of support on a break below 2767 comes in at about 2748ish... and then the 20day WMA at 2725ish. 

Gold futures finally broke higher from 1620 and are pushing towards 1650. I'm expecting some tough resistance between 1650-1675 the first time up. Euro futures broke away from the 1.2400 level and are on track for an inverse head and shoulders target of 1.2650ish. 

If we are seeing the beginning stages of the COT extreme positions being unwound, I'm expecting equity index futures down, VIX futures up, and Euro futures up over the course of the next 2-4 weeks. 

On a more relaxing note, I found a cool sunset photo from Australia... 

Relax :)

This could be an uggsy day ...

DECK Daily Chart (11:35AM)
Deckers has definitely put in a bottom (a double at that) and has been moving higher for a couple of weeks.   I looks good again today but I think it is ready to rest a bit.  A couple of days of consolidation would be healthy.  A pullback to 48.50 and a bounce would be even better.  Keep an eye on this one.

SRZ Breakout


SRZ has been breaking out for some time.    One to keep an eye on for a pullback and bounce.  I keep waiting but it does not happen.



The weekly chart shows a volatility squeeze. After gathering itself at the 200 period ma it broke out.  After a bounce off the 50 dma it looks like SRZ wants to continue to go up.

Monday, August 20, 2012

VIX do or die

VIX Daily
The VIX looks ready to either move up or break down into a new range. So far it continues to cling to 14, so I'm betting it makes a push towards 20 if we get a pullback in equities.

10Year futures support

10Yr Treasury Futures Daily
10Yr futures bulls are trying to hold the 132'050 support level (about 1.835% yield). You can see the potential for heavy supply above starting at 132'305... so I'll be keeping an eye on that level if the bulls bounce it up there.

Gold Futures 15min
Gold is back above 1620 and looks pretty comfy, although there was a big volume push from 1620-1624. The bulls really need to hold that level this time otherwise it could just roll right back over to 1600 (again). Euro futures are looking like the bulls are stepping in around 1.2300... although they have been struggling at 1.2400 recently.

Monday morning


Another Monday morning.
Trade safe out there, ya hear ?

Friday, August 17, 2012

Weekend Thread

Kyoto, Japan
Maybe Evan can get us a new picture of "The Path of Bamboo" on his trip :)

Hope everybody has a safe and relaxing weekend!

Do currencies say "risk on"?


One way to examine the global appetite for risk is to compare the relative prices of currencies. Rather than looking at prices based on the US dollar (USD), let's look at a "risk-on" pairing of the Canadian dollar against the Euro. My reasoning is that Canada, along with Australia, are resource-rich countries that do well when the global economy buys their stuff. Lately the Canadian bond market has seen a lot of money going into it, not as a carry trade based on interest rates but more because it is a safe haven with a so-far sound financial system, so I'm picking canucks over ozzies today.

Here's a simplified 6-month chart; sorry for the useless vertical scale but my free version of StockCharts has the Euro multiplied by 100:



The foreign exchange market has the CADEUR cross pair nicely above the 60day average that is in blue, and far above the 200-day average that is in red. Zooming out to a 3 year time horizon we get:


The pair is at an all-time high, just blue sky above. This tells me that the global risk parameter is set way far in the "on" position. This can be worked in at least 3 ways:

1) Go into the FX market and trade the cross. Expect the bid/ask to double because your broker wants to make extra money off you.
2) Use ETF's, long CAD and short EUR, to create a synthetic form of this currency trade.
3) Use it to inform your overall trading attitude.

I hesitate to advise you to go long or short because when a chart is in the nose-bleed territory it is ripe for a reversal as well as for a continuation. What I hope to contribute here is a quantification of the general feeling I've been getting from the market since early July - long is favored over short.

Friday morning


I looked at a bunch of charts trying to find something juicy for you mugs.  But there wasn't much that looked like a buy right now.  On the other hand, there wasn't much that I wanted to short.  A bit of market pullback would probably provide some better setups.

So you get a cat, lol.

Thursday, August 16, 2012

SPX resistance

After a quick dip into the 1402ish level on S&P futures, the bulls got to work and finally made a run towards 1417 today. The HOD was 1415.50.... so they are getting closer. Futures closed just a few points off the highs. 

SPX Daily
The daily chart of the cash index looks like the bulls are going for a breakout above that high volume zone. That little red line is the high from earlier in the year (1422ish). The high from the first part of May is 1415ish... which is where we closed today. I'm not convinced this is going to break out above the 1425 level. There are certainly a lot of folks in that camp though, so I'm trying to keep an open mind. I'm currently positioned short in Naz futures... so it's a little tough to stay open minded.

If we close under 1410 tomorrow, we could be right back into that boring range again. Short term indicators are looking ripe for selling. There are a few intermediate term indicators that look ripe for selling too. I think the risk is pretty high on the long side here.

Relax :)

Intraday update

S&P Futures 30min
S&P futures bulls are pushing up towards the highs from a few days ago (1409ish). Gold and the Euro are back on the move. Gold is having some trouble at 1620 again. Treasury futures sold down in the night session and have bounced back up to about break even on the day. I just started 1/4th of a swing short position in Naz futures at 2758 and will be building out the rest of that position today and tomorrow. I'm looking for tech to take a breather over the next few weeks. Intraday volume on S&P futures is suggesting an 8-10point range today. The low of the day session is about 1402... so that puts a high target area of 1410-1412 (1412-1414 on SPX). As I am typing the bulls are pushing into the high target area here at 1410.

Gimme MO

Gator's Chart of the Day: MO
It's not a rocket stock but it is low maintenance and pays a good dividend.  Yield is currently 4.67% (2.5x the US 10 Year Note) and the company just reported earnings July 24th.  If you bought every time price touched the 50 day simple moving average you would be doing just fine.

The Trade
This section should be called The Buy because there isn't much of a trade as we usually think of it.  Buy what you want and put a stop a couple of points under the 50 day sma for capital preservation in flash crash purposes and wait for the dividend check.

If that's just too boring then sell upside covered calls against the stock you buy to juice your return.  You could sell a Dec37 for .30 ($30 for each 100 shares you own) and effectively double your return.  Just do it again when they expire.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Zzzzzzzzzz.....


S&P futures are starting to look like this poor pup... stuck and not sure which way to go. CSCO is having a positive reaction to earnings in the afterhours session. Equity futures don't seem very impressed yet. Normally that's not a good sign for the bulls going forward, but I'll give 'em some time to see if they step up during the night shift.

Intraday update

The bulls put in some work last night in the S&P futures and held the weekly pivot (1397ish). Intraday volume is pretty light so far and is suggesting another 7-10 point range day. Low of the day session so far is 1399ish... so if the bulls keep the pressure on, that puts a high target area of 1406-1409 (1408-1411 on SPX). The Euro futures will probably need to get back above 1.2300 in order to get the bulls active again in S&P's.

Riding the Green Monster

Gator's Chart of the Day: MNST
This stock is Dan Fitzpatrick's free chart so you may want to see what the pro has to say about it.  You can view it here.  http://www.stockmarketmentor.com/public/3984.cfm  It's 3:10 at regular speed or 1:54 on the faster play back.

After selling off hard for three days on heavy volume the stock found buyers Tuesday.  Actually they stepped in Monday and we'll take a look at a 5 minute chart to see where and with what kind of conviction that buying began.


MNST 5 Minute Chart 
On Monday MNST bottomed just before 3PM at 52.00 and moved higher on increasing volume into the close.  It finished at 53.27 and gapped up on Tuesday morning and continued to move higher all day until it closed with the tallest volume bars of the day at a price of 58.59.  Clearly this is not just retail investors but institutional buyers.

Monster is not a value stock.  It has a trailing P/E of 32 and forward P/E of 23 with a PEG ratio of 2.18 but the balance sheet is pristine with no debt.  Finviz shows a target price of 75.57 with less than 1 day to cover the short interest (1.27% of the float.)

The Trade
Buy it while it's hot and sell it when it's not.  If the buyers are still coming I would start the position early in the day and add if the price is still rising after 15- 20 minutes.  If the stock does not open up (or is not green in the first 5 minutes) there is no long trade here.  The stop on the initial position should go just under the low of the day.  (The thesis is the stock is still moving up with momentum and when it stops and reverses that's when the long side of the trade is over.)  The first logical resistance point would be the 200 day sma (59.50) and if the stock moves through there it should pause around 61.  (That's the bottom of Friday's red candle.)  I would be looking to lighten up around that level with a tight trailing stop on at least half the position and I would be looking for the stock to fail before it hit 63.  When it does stop going up I would sell the rest of the position and be ready to short (or buy puts) and take a ride back down. 

If the stock is not green after the opening rotation (about 20 minutes) it could be a good short right then and there.  Once the short postition is established I would keep the buy stop within 1 or 2 points and adjust it as needed.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Minor selling today

S&P futures fulfilled a 10 point day session range and then the bulls promptly stepped up near the cash close. We could finally see a decent shakeout tomorrow.

Relax :)

Conflicted on direction

S&P futures are grinding back up after filling the gap from yesterday's close. I'm a little conflicted on direction here. On one hand, my daily chart indicators are super stretched and look ripe for selling. Various put/call ratios that I watch are looking supportive of some downside. SPX tagged 1310 right at the cash open (top area of a high volume zone) . Gold has cracked 1620 and is threatening to crack 1600 on a closing basis. Euro futures are flat to slightly negative.

On the other hand, short term indicators are not giving a ripe for selling setup. In fact, they have room for more buying. Rydex data is showing a push into the short side (as of yesterday) that looks relatively bullish. We haven't seen a heavy volume push in futures on the daily timeframe yet. And to top it off, as I look around I get the impression that a lot of folks are looking for a top here.

10year futures are right at the bottom of the range they were in for 4 weeks. This could be taken both ways. If it holds and bounces, it's most likely bearish for the SPX. If it cracks, it's most likely bullish for the SPX.

10yr Futures Daily
Overall I still think we see a shakeout... if not today, then tomorrow. I'm trying to be patient on the short side.

Is That an Island or a Floating Continent?

Gator's Chart of the Day: BWLD
If this is an island it's the largest one I remember; about 6 months long.  The book says this stock should be trading lower if it is an island reversal.  Maybe it's a floating continent.

BWLD usually does well in football season and in case you hadn't noticed the NFL has already played pre-season games and college schedules begin 2 weeks from Thursday.

Since the gap down the stock has made higher highs and higher lows.  That sounds good if you want to get long.  The P/E is still pushing 20 but analysts maintain a target price of nearly 86.


BWLD Weekly Chart
The weekly chart shows the stock sitting on a long term trend line so we could see a continued move higher.

The Trade
Since the market is holding up I think a position could be started now with a stop below the long term trend line just under 70.  If the analysts are right about 86 as a target, that presents a risk of about 4.3% down and a reward of 18% up.  It probably won't be a fast trade.  Might take all season.