Thursday, August 16, 2012

SPX resistance

After a quick dip into the 1402ish level on S&P futures, the bulls got to work and finally made a run towards 1417 today. The HOD was 1415.50.... so they are getting closer. Futures closed just a few points off the highs. 

SPX Daily
The daily chart of the cash index looks like the bulls are going for a breakout above that high volume zone. That little red line is the high from earlier in the year (1422ish). The high from the first part of May is 1415ish... which is where we closed today. I'm not convinced this is going to break out above the 1425 level. There are certainly a lot of folks in that camp though, so I'm trying to keep an open mind. I'm currently positioned short in Naz futures... so it's a little tough to stay open minded.

If we close under 1410 tomorrow, we could be right back into that boring range again. Short term indicators are looking ripe for selling. There are a few intermediate term indicators that look ripe for selling too. I think the risk is pretty high on the long side here.

Relax :)