Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Conflicted on direction

S&P futures are grinding back up after filling the gap from yesterday's close. I'm a little conflicted on direction here. On one hand, my daily chart indicators are super stretched and look ripe for selling. Various put/call ratios that I watch are looking supportive of some downside. SPX tagged 1310 right at the cash open (top area of a high volume zone) . Gold has cracked 1620 and is threatening to crack 1600 on a closing basis. Euro futures are flat to slightly negative.

On the other hand, short term indicators are not giving a ripe for selling setup. In fact, they have room for more buying. Rydex data is showing a push into the short side (as of yesterday) that looks relatively bullish. We haven't seen a heavy volume push in futures on the daily timeframe yet. And to top it off, as I look around I get the impression that a lot of folks are looking for a top here.

10year futures are right at the bottom of the range they were in for 4 weeks. This could be taken both ways. If it holds and bounces, it's most likely bearish for the SPX. If it cracks, it's most likely bullish for the SPX.

10yr Futures Daily
Overall I still think we see a shakeout... if not today, then tomorrow. I'm trying to be patient on the short side.