Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Time to drag the channel.

Gator's Chart of the Day: JOY
After a steady move down from late January until mid-July it looks like Joy Global has bottomed and is now trading in a channel.  The P/Es (both trailing and forward) are about 8 so it's not expensive and that tall green volume bar was the day they reported earnings.  This looks like a good place to start a position.

The Trade
If the stock opens anywhere between the 20 day (57.41) and 50 day (55.29) simple moving averages I think you can take a 1/3 position and put you stop a little below the channel.  (54.80ish looks good.)  Since this is a channel trade you'll want to add quickly if the stock trades higher and I would want to fill out the position if the stock looks like it will close above the 20 day.  That may take a day or two but if the stock is going to stay in the channel I would expect it to happen this week.  While the stock is in the channel you'll need to give the stock some room for daily oscillation so don't make subsequent stops too tight.

With a target price of about 65-66 you should have about 1.50 downside vs. 8.00+ on the upside so that's a nice risk - reward setup.