Monday, July 30, 2012

Monday Morning



Well, we are at a KEY LEVEL again. The SPX is at its 78.6% range from the move of 2007/2009 in my Fibonacci world at 1377ish. Us, Bears have been beaten up for the last two days over every possible rumor around how Europe is going to be saved..yet with everything eur/usd is back to 1.2260.  As everyone slept, the Shanghai Comp sold off into the close going into March 2009 range. Spain Posted a continue drop in GDP, posting a -.4%..ouch. In the Europe Session we have aud/usd at 1.0468... 6.65% for Spain 10 year and 5.88% Italy 10 year with a bond auctions tonight for Italy. During the weekend a poll came out showing a huge drop in support for Merkle on how she is handling the crisis fwiw. HSBC reported earning tonight and beat estimates, but stock is flat. Dallas Fed is really the only econ news in the US Session today..Our biggest wait and see moment today could be any news out of the Meeting of our Treasury Secretary Timmy Geithner  and Super Mario Draghi, everyone will be looking for  hints of central bank plans.

When it comes to what the Central Banks can do this week...the Bank of England may cut rates to Zero, but their QE stimulus fell flat last month so I don't expect anything else from them. The Fed gave us Operation Twist last month and with the GDP being above estimates I see nothing out of them this week. For Super Mario, he really doesn't have the tool box that our Fed has. He talked about how LTRO really didn't bring money into the market in his last press conference (well except for France), the Bond buying program didn't do much and really upsetted the Germans by doing it. Ah, Euro Bonds, over Merkel's Dead Body (btw, probably her worst Vacation yet..wonder if she has enough money for the second week). Spain is coming out tonight saying they will not ask for European funds to buy its debt despite the fact that the country needs its borrowing costs to fall soon. The market has been going crazy for two days...but, I agree with David Durst on CNBC on Friday, when he said that the ECB is Running on Empty.