Monday, April 23, 2012

Monday afternoon


Market Cycle


Nobody is bigger than the market, not even the Federal Reserve.  No matter how much money they print, the basic market cycle will prevail.


I don't think there is any question that we are somewhere on the left side of this chart.  My opinion is that we are just past the point of "euphoria" and heading toward "anxiety".  We are certainly nowhere near the point of maximum financial opportunity.


While this is a big macro view for the purpose of investing, it also has implications for trading.  The days of JBTFD are probably behind us for a while.  This is a time to be very cautious with long positions and to demand high quality setups.  Honor your stops and don't be too quick to buy weakness.  For those who like the dark side, shorts are working again for a change.