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Paige's last catch. Note the Gator cap on the deckhand. (I told you the guy was the ugly one.) |
Friday, December 30, 2011
Last Trading Day of 2011 - Morning Thread
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Afternoon Thread
3 AHA moments for me about why listening to CNBC in hopes of stock tips is hazardous to your bottom line:
(1) came from twitter of all places. Herb Greenberg tweets about an hour ahead of time to watch and he and "Sully" will have a staged disagreement/discussion about some stock ... an hour from his tweet. A couple of times he has a twitter discussion about what he should wear ... So - fake as wrestling. There's a concept.
(2) these matchups between analysts - one of whom is bullish and another who is bearish on a particular stock - this is how they set them up according to Dan who let the cat out a couple of times: the show producer sends out mass emails to everyone on their guest list asking if they have a take on DMND or GMCR or NFLX (last year it was BP and HAL and RIG) and would they appear on a wrestling match - though they don't call it that of course!
(3) They interview alot of people every hour, 24 hours a day pretty much. (ok some re-runs and I exaggerate, but you get the point.) Anyway, the perpetual question is: what are you buying right here right now? or sometimes: what are you selling right here right now? The implication of this - you should be buying or selling something all the time.
Those guys standing around talking on TV and tweeting all day are not trading all day. Do the Najarians ever really trade?
Right now when CNBC is asking for predictions. Mass email from show producer to everyone on their guest list: do you have a prediction for 2012 and do you want to be on TV?
They have a program to fill. We need to get Toes in the guest list. Does Toes have email?
Morning Thread
Well, the Italians managed to sell a boatload of bonds but maybe not as much as they wanted to. At least those that they sold were at lower rates than the last time out of the chute. Yields then traded higher but have come back down as the day progressed.
We have the jobs number coming and it could move the markets if there is a surprise. The more likely market movers continue to be Europe and Iran. At least that's the way I see it. Maybe it will be different after I get some more coffee.
We have the jobs number coming and it could move the markets if there is a surprise. The more likely market movers continue to be Europe and Iran. At least that's the way I see it. Maybe it will be different after I get some more coffee.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Evening Thread
Afternoon Thread
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Evening Thread
The SP-500 traded in a 7 point range today. I had expected to see a bit more volatility. Maybe tomorrow.
CONFESSION IS GOOD FOR THE SOUL,
And also for the trader. Let's face it, not every trade we made in 2011 was a winner. Let's look over our list for 2011, fess up the worst (leave out all the gory details PLEASE - we really don't want to know!
Where I am aiming to go with this, is to look at what did work in 2011 next, and then let's look at strategies behind those good trades, and what would we do to improve on them ...
So let's start the ball rolling with our biggest losers for 2011. For me personally, I am not trading NFLX again for a long time.
OK, I tried to attach a chart and I totally messed up something - I can't even talk about NFLX. The ban is working.
My second worst trade was GS - and I bring this up only because I thought I traded GS well all year. I had some good trades - but alot of terrible ones ...
So - go through and see what you did , fess up - then we will move on to something even more constructive!
Where I am aiming to go with this, is to look at what did work in 2011 next, and then let's look at strategies behind those good trades, and what would we do to improve on them ...
So let's start the ball rolling with our biggest losers for 2011. For me personally, I am not trading NFLX again for a long time.
OK, I tried to attach a chart and I totally messed up something - I can't even talk about NFLX. The ban is working.
My second worst trade was GS - and I bring this up only because I thought I traded GS well all year. I had some good trades - but alot of terrible ones ...
So - go through and see what you did , fess up - then we will move on to something even more constructive!
Monday, December 26, 2011
Holiday Thread (Monday 12/26/2011)
Instructions for posting charts from freestockcharts.com (or TC2000) are on the previous thread. They can be found here. http://tinyurl.com/7fntvkb
Friday, December 23, 2011
HOLIDAY POST
Afternoon Thread
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Morning Thread
S&P futures are attempting to hold near the highs of the overnight session. Euro futures have struggled to hold above 1.3100... which appears to be what's keeping a lid on equity index futures. The seasonality chart above indicates we enter the "Santa Rally" period starting tomorrow.
Our thoughts and prayers go out to Julio for a healthy and speedy recovery.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Morning Thread
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Monday, December 19, 2011
Evening Thread
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiETS7xYUzdF0QGFukXhs0YQpV5iH92p3HNDenCXs1LHYiEX_MobcjUs_a-2vtxDvgSs9Y0nkTtvPyn7m1o5fSlTtxaBkNWHLEJNhZ_4YiD1CFVfci1uc-WMsmtrARFFOY-sdrBFp4AeWw/s320/cat+in+elf+outfit.jpg)
A late "surge" kept the S&P500 above the 100 day moving average (@1204). Otherwise trading today started strong and finished weak, closing 19 points below day's high and 3 points above days low (seen in last 10 minutes).
Steel and banks and transports were quite weak. In fact the DJ Transports were the weakest average on the day. Airlines including FDX were all quite weak.
Traders still looking for Santa Rally.
Afternoon Thread
Morning Thread
Friday, December 16, 2011
Weekend Thread
Earlier this week Art Cashin suggested traders might post Santa's picture on a milk carton, which prompted:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQdWqWIK6L4GfP25XjjJPvIVQPAEC9s5GdVuoCXhuTnQgcqVyw2EYYdppZb1gRkxBD3ac1VZF8iwT9W6f9eQiJiIJc7sYwU5DKyDTnb90f65bMmZ0CABerFHprrFDe9FS4k4aF1_VUlvY/s320/santa+on+milk+carton.png)
Y'all rest up this weekend and get ready for the holidays.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQdWqWIK6L4GfP25XjjJPvIVQPAEC9s5GdVuoCXhuTnQgcqVyw2EYYdppZb1gRkxBD3ac1VZF8iwT9W6f9eQiJiIJc7sYwU5DKyDTnb90f65bMmZ0CABerFHprrFDe9FS4k4aF1_VUlvY/s320/santa+on+milk+carton.png)
Y'all rest up this weekend and get ready for the holidays.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Evening Thread
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVtl0kHSV0jQ7hJmBCNS8UI7DFa7oa7R6JEVjYzNgrF1Juk2wDqrSdJ6Tv9r4-cJiZmhCfQjVHUqDEM6NWHZ5-1iDKwdrKt5EnFN3Oh95QbH_lEHYtBPpntrgl8Lc0X8SJZeu8v39tTvA/s320/grinch.gif)
Dollar up. Most other stuff down. We closed somewhere between the lows and the highs, depending on what you are looking at.
Why is Santa's suit red and the Grinch's skin green?
Afternoon Thread
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikTyM1_nIasP01SXLhm-TWjzRraNrosDHYSqx4Bw_5u3S88E6wtH84yxOkKEcxHpH0BQujmJsEr9w4iu17OZjnF7u7TT7OggtXpFcAj7z58f6wmG-W9gJ9sASSu6bVa-YpM972UBMe-Zs/s320/french+onion+soup.jpg)
The market: summarizing Josh's posts just before this new blog: NAZZ futures buyers @ 2220-ish and SP futures bulls trying to keep a bid under 1204. Fitzpatrick 3 day "guideline", and he is first to say that market rules and not his rules. (3 day thing: smart money moves on first day, not so smart money on second day, and you know who on the third day - don't be that guy.)
Since we work to eat, let's talk food: Onion soup was popular in Roman times as a soup of poor people as onions were plentiful and easy to grow. Try cooking onions slowly and bringing out the flavor with some sherry. And you get some of those phyto-nutrients for your health in the tasty bargain.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Evening Thread
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihLZquL4wgB4znKa-39Ec6Rs9iZv1sz2-FB3twCVJs0TMugWVlriioNoxhlAok2YGX6HftErXH354zBHrdgwEcwVXVhIN09NSrfcz9qhS1DHUI7q-B27DJ9GhZkkvSqg0S3OWcT9GnKw4/s320/fruitcake2.jpg)
Traders wanted to join in the Christmas spirit, but in keeping with the wacky trading year, there was a sell-off to support on the SP500 after the Fed statement today.
Afternoon Thread
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyyyx0kl1phpPgMf52maF1L1L4DqxZT-r1mMhyD55G4KjZad6OvpKq-8ozsem_ZxDoVgf1pGA7_vuJP3X5omsi-lTLWDo7AzqlY1Lz9fJ9jmwnfTv0490ZvOYRGxR4X2-NYYAHuQSR6Kg/s320/220px-Ben_Bernanke_official_portrait.jpg)