Monday, July 30, 2012

Monday Evening

I thought I would see how much I could cram on this post... lol. Sorry for the delay, I had some formatting issues. Anyway, first a few charts:

AAPL Daily
AAPL pretty much filled that gap at 600 today. It could continue higher, but I imagine a lot of bears are looking at this and seeing a decent short setup. Anything over 615ish would most likely stop them out.

SPX Daily
When you zoom out a bit on a daily chart of SPX, you can see how important that 1310-1330ish volume zone really is. When I look at this chart, I find myself wondering if we could really break out here. I'm not sure what the catalyst would be, but 1425 really isn't that far off. It seems more likely that we ping-pong around between 1350-1425 until the election... but we are at an interesting spot right now. The bearish case gets stronger on a break below that volume zone.

Euro Futures Daily
Euro futures pulled back today and tested the 20day WMA line at 1.2240ish. There is potential for a push back up towards 1.2700... and that would probably correlate with the SPX pushing towards 1425ish. That whole area between 1.2450-1.2700 will most likely be tough resistance if the bulls push it up there.



Ok, on to more important things.... lol. I promised a pic of my pup Ruby. This is a little blurry, but is one of my favorites because she is licking her lips for a carrot... lol. Ruby loves carrots and carrot juice. When someone says "treat", she gets excited because she thinks carrots are coming. The one time I took her inside my local bank, they tried to give her a dog "biscuit" and she just looked at it... lol.




I looked for a while to find something for relaxation that wasn't just a photo. I found tons of videos out there, but I will have to dig through them some more to find the good ones. This one is pretty good if you enjoy waterfalls. 

Monday Afternoon

SPX Daily
Short term indicators have come off a little since Friday's "ripe for selling"' readings, but still have room for more selling. 1355-1375 on SPX should hold as support considering the high volume zone sitting there. S&P futures daily pivot is 1373ish... which is equivalent to 1377 on SPX. That 1377 level is also the Fibonacci level that Trading Nymph noted on the Morning post. I'll be watching that level closely should it get tagged this afternoon. 1373ish on futures would also be the bottom end of a potential 10-15 point range day.

Monday Morning



Well, we are at a KEY LEVEL again. The SPX is at its 78.6% range from the move of 2007/2009 in my Fibonacci world at 1377ish. Us, Bears have been beaten up for the last two days over every possible rumor around how Europe is going to be saved..yet with everything eur/usd is back to 1.2260.  As everyone slept, the Shanghai Comp sold off into the close going into March 2009 range. Spain Posted a continue drop in GDP, posting a -.4%..ouch. In the Europe Session we have aud/usd at 1.0468... 6.65% for Spain 10 year and 5.88% Italy 10 year with a bond auctions tonight for Italy. During the weekend a poll came out showing a huge drop in support for Merkle on how she is handling the crisis fwiw. HSBC reported earning tonight and beat estimates, but stock is flat. Dallas Fed is really the only econ news in the US Session today..Our biggest wait and see moment today could be any news out of the Meeting of our Treasury Secretary Timmy Geithner  and Super Mario Draghi, everyone will be looking for  hints of central bank plans.

When it comes to what the Central Banks can do this week...the Bank of England may cut rates to Zero, but their QE stimulus fell flat last month so I don't expect anything else from them. The Fed gave us Operation Twist last month and with the GDP being above estimates I see nothing out of them this week. For Super Mario, he really doesn't have the tool box that our Fed has. He talked about how LTRO really didn't bring money into the market in his last press conference (well except for France), the Bond buying program didn't do much and really upsetted the Germans by doing it. Ah, Euro Bonds, over Merkel's Dead Body (btw, probably her worst Vacation yet..wonder if she has enough money for the second week). Spain is coming out tonight saying they will not ask for European funds to buy its debt despite the fact that the country needs its borrowing costs to fall soon. The market has been going crazy for two days...but, I agree with David Durst on CNBC on Friday, when he said that the ECB is Running on Empty.