Algo Fighters: December 2013

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Monday, December 30, 2013

Since our sweet southern4 was yappin' about Walter over the weekend I thought I would opine on the chart. Coal in general is looking better and I hear news here and there that the POTUS may ease up on his beat down of this plentiful resource. Supposedly some of his party are afraid that continued pressures to shrink/close the industry is hurting their election chances for 2014.

Clearly the stock has been strong for the past 2 weeks. Friday it broke sharply higher on above average volume and closed near the high of the day. This is also the first close above the 200 day sma since February.

The Trade
The stock could be purchased rhrn (right here right now) as long as the price is above the 200 day sma. I would recommend a stop just below Thursday's intraday low of 15.52. I would look for a test of 19.50 - 20.00.

Friday, December 27, 2013

SPX Daily / Weekly

Friday morning

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Thursday morning

SP-500 Daily Chart

Overbought? Yup. In need of a correction? Probably. Is it done going up? I don't call tops. The direction is up until it isn't. Keep tight stops under part or most of your position and let it work. A pullback to the horizontal support line could be welcome and being ready to enter or add on a bounce from that level can keep you in a moneymaker pattern. Enjoy what Santa Clause brought.

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas bloggerz

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Tuesday morning

Monday, December 23, 2013

Monday morning

Friday, December 20, 2013

Weekend thread

A Christmas Card by Rune Askeland

Friday morning

FFIV Daily Chart

Jojo mentioned this stock more than once recently and y'all may remember I posted often about it in 4Q 2012 as I traded it following the Oct. earnings disappointment. I haven't been in it at all in 2013. It has my attention again but for a different reason. The 2012 trade was a bounce and gap fill opportunity but now the stock has consolidated and looks to me to be ready to move higher. Thursday was the 1st green candle that closed above the 200, 150, 50 and 20 day moving averages since the Nov. 1st capitulation sell off. The stochastic recently printed a buy signal. While volume is a little light any increase could give the price a nice kick start and breakout above the upper Bollinger Band.

The Trade
I think the entry can be made now as long as the price remains above 84. The upside target would be a test of the Sept. high (94.66) and the initial stop would be just below the 200 day (currently 82.74.) That would be a trade with 10 up or 2 down which is the same as 5:1 reward to risk. I would start with 1/3 position and add the rest if the stock clears 86. You may want to take some profits along the way using a strategy of moving a partial stop to a level just below the previous trading day's low. Should a pullback present itself I would want to buy the bounce and place the stop just below the buy point. Rinse and repeat 'til the target is reached and then use your stop to take you out of the trade.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Thursday morning

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Wednesday morning

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Tuesday morning

Monday, December 16, 2013

Monday morning

Friday, December 13, 2013

Weekend thread

Friday

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Xmas Seasonality.... and beyond

With the Santa rally talk starting to pick up, seems like a good time to look at the stats. Wednesday the 18th is minus 5.

On the flip side, here is an excerpt from Sentimentrader (and the accompanying chart) as we head into the new year.

Investor's Intelligence, the granddaddy of sentiment surveys, released their latest findings this week and the results were extreme. Out of those newsletters expressing an opinion, more than 80% are expecting higher prices. That's the most skewed percentage since 1987.

Even though that's a relatively small sample, I believe it's worth paying attention to. That data is hard to ignore, especially given the other intermediate term caution flags popping up.