Monday evening

I hope everyone has a pleasant evening.

Monday afternoon

So does the market.   

If you need more than a band-aid to repair the damage you may be too long. Evaluate your risk and protect your capital.  No one else will.

Monday morning

Keep an eye on the 50day SMA at 1680 SPX.

Trade safe and honor your stops. 

SPX Daily / Weekly

SPX Daily

There are 2 gaps that I see on the S&P500 daily chart. I've marked them with green lines. One is from 1672.40-1674.32, and the other is from 1688.73-1691.70. That second one was filled on Friday (with the LOD coming in at 1687.11) and correlated to a 1682ish gap fill in the S&P futures as well. The only recent gap I see that is still open on the cash index is the one at 1672ish. The bears would have to put some work in to break down below the 20 day at 1684ish and also the 50 day at 1680ish. 

SPX Weekly

Not much to report about the weekly chart. It looks iffy on both sides, so I decided to pull up the COT data. Interesting surprise:

This is the "All-Index Commercial Traders Position" from Sentimentrader.com. It's showing a combination of all the equity index futures positions within the commercial traders group, typically considered the "smart money". The reason it is surprising is that commercials have aggressively increased short exposure across the board this last week and a half, and it's absolutely something to be aware of. It has me rethinking a lot of things right now, first one being that I think I might owe baron some cranberry sauce. I thought the bulls would make a run to 1800 by thanksgiving, but this puts some serious doubt in my mind about that. I am going to be digging deeper into a few things and will keep you posted on my homework.

On another note, please see the comments below for some info related to comments going forward.

Weekend thread

Morning Glow by Adam Baker

(( Marty - inbound ))

Friday afternoon

Friday morning

Thursday evening

Thursday afternoon

Thursday morning

Wednesday evening

Wednesday afternoon

Wednesday morning

Tuesday evening @ES

The 60min S&P emini day session looks like 30 point H&S, which targets ~1660.  There's a gap fill ~1664.  Call it 168 - 167.50 on SPY.  There is some support in the 1680 - 1670 area.

Be careful out there.

Tuesday afternoon

Tuesday morning

Monday evening @ES

S&P emini futures 30min day session.  A down open tomorrow might fill the gap near 1682 and bounce.  But there are some disappointed buyers overhead, so I don't know how vigorous the bounce would be.  Take with a load of salt, because I haven't had much feel for the market lately.

Monday afternoon

Monday morning

SPX Daily / Weekly

SPX Daily

The S&P500 has pulled back to potential support here at 1710. I'm guessing the bulls will step up on Monday and start building again for a move towards 1800. This is based partly on my review of some short term indicators signaling we are oversold, and partly on the simple fact of where we are on the daily chart above. 

One thing I've learned (after a long battle, lol) is to stay flexible with my predictions. So... with that in mind, I'm thinking we've got 10 points below here to a more serious battle ground at 1700, and the high volume zones of 1690-1700 and 1650-1660 that could also come into play. If the bulls don't produce much of a bounce off this oversold reading in the short term, I will definitely be re-evaluating and looking at those areas as higher probability targets. 

"It's not about whether you are right or wrong, it's about what you accomplish when you're right, and the wisdom you gain when you're wrong". That's my rewrite of a famous qoute from you-know-who.

SPX Weekly

The S&P500 Weekly chart has pushed up into the upper Bollinger Band. Even though the bulls didn't close at the top of the range this week, I'm still willing to give them the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. 

Ok, Considering it's a Saturday, I thought I would make this post even longer than usual - lol - and put up the following chart:

I was reviewing some longer term indicators on Sentimentrader.com and came across this interesting one. This data is reported monthly, so we are talking long term here... but this is worth staring at for a bit. Here is Sentimentrader's explanation of the indicator: 

EXPLANATION:

Each month, the Investment Company Institute releases information related to the mutual fund industry.

Included in this data is the total amount of assets invested in mutual funds, ETFs and money market funds.

As a rough measure of investor sentiment, this indicator looks at the total assets invested in equity mutual funds and ETFs, and compares it to the total assets invested in the safety of money market funds.

The higher the ratio, the more comfortable investors have become holding stocks; the lower the ratio, the more uncertainty there is in the market.

GUIDELINES:

Since 1997, this ratio has traded in a fairly defined range.  When equity assets were three times greater than money market assets, stocks formed bull market peaks within the next several months.

When uncertainty was so high that money market assets nearly overcame equity assets (i.e. when the ratio dropped close to 1.0), then stocks were near their bear market bottoms.

There is not necessarily a ceiling on how high this ratio can go - it rose steadily during the 1990s.  So it's entirely possible that the 3.0 level will no longer act as a ceiling on this ratio if stocks are embarking on another long-term bull market cycle, it's just something to watch based on history over the past 15 years.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:

Investment Company Institute (www.icinet.net)

After staring at it for a bit, I'm definitely debating how much weight to put on this. I always appreciate the brilliant minds that gather here and would love to open this up for discussion. What do you guys (and gals) think?

(( Marty - inbound ))

Weekend thread

Siren's Song by Kurt Budliger

(( Marty - outbound ))

Friday afternoon

Friday morning

It's quadruple witching Friday.

"nap" is not a bad strategy today.

Thursday evening

Thursday afternoon

Thursday morning

Baby Ben Bernanke - The early years

Wednesday evening

Once again, the Fed didn't break any bullish hearts.

Wednesday afternoon

Wednesday morning

Tuesday evening

Tuesday afternoon

Tuesday morning

Monday evening

Monday afternoon

Can this be a good sign or is it crying out the top is near?

Monday morning

So many political parallels but ... can't go there.

SPX Daily / Weekly

SPX Daily

SPX Weekly

Weekend thread

Dreamscape by Ian Plant

Friday afternoon

Carl wanted to include this with Dell PCs

Friday morning

Attention futures traders

Index futures roll to December (month Z)

Thursday evening

Thursday afternoon

Gas was .52/gallon

The market threatened a sell off this morning but buyers showed up as some indexes reached their daily Pivot Points.  A bit of sideways action here could be a good thing but with international tensions and breaking news every couple of hours (warranted or not) it's unlikely we'll have calm even if we close flat.  JMO and remember what you paid to be here.

Thursday morning

Wednesday evening

Daily Chart - Tomorrow is important

With the late day move the SP-500 closed above it's 5/22 intraday high of 1687.17.  I think tomorrow and Friday will be very important for the index.  If we have a pullback of any size then we could be watching the right shoulder form. If the 50 day sma holds and the index moves higher then a 1710 close would make a higher high and likely brings 1745 in sight.  Where's that crystal ball?

Wednesday afternoon

Not sure but that could be the BIDU cloud . Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wednesday morning

Tuesday evening

SPY, DIA, and IWM have some resistance overhead.  QQQ continues in blue sky territory (at least in the last 13 years), having made it back to November 2000 levels.