Evening Thread

Retailer AMZN reported AH and the market did not react favorably.

The good news (we'll take what we can get) is that the AH action has not violated the long term trend in the weekly chart. Perhaps the conference call will be more positive than the knee jerk reaction of traders.

Afternoon Thread

All traders have different styles and theories, but there is one thing that we all have in common: the need for proper trading tools and equipment is paramount. While we all covet the multiscreen setup of the pros...

the trader keyboard is essential!

Order yours today at AMZN

Morning Thread

NTAP daily chart

I'm revisiting NTAP today.  I still have a starter position in March40 calls and while they were up a bit yesterday they are not performing .... yet. 

Looking at Monday's action the stock opened near it's low of the day which it found in the first 3 minutes of trading.  It bounced from the 50 day simple moving average and traded higher for the remainder of the session.

If the news from Europe is not bad I'll be looking to add to my calls if the stock opens above the 50 day and then prints a green candle.

Evening Thread



BahiaBaby is reading charts tonight so if you would like her input throw out a question on your stock.

Afternoon Thread

Last time she tailgates that truck.

Things are likely to change very quickly if we get news from Europe.

Morning Thread

Gator's Chart of the Day: CLF

Cliffs Natural Resources (formerly Cleveland Cliffs) used to be a weekend takeover target for the rumor mills.  Never happened and now it doesn't get that kind of press but Barron's did write a very positive article on it over this past weekend.  This was in spite (or ignorance) of the company's own lowered guidance for 4Q 2011 prices of its iron ore.  Cliffs expects to report $120/ton while current market prices are around $139 per Barron's.  This suggests significant upside going forward and with a forward P/E of 7 the company already trades well below the steel industry average P/E of 11.5.  Credit Suisse lowered the price target to $82 from $93 while Deutsche Bank has it at $110.

The daily chart (above) shows the smack down in price after the Thursday night announcement.  The stock opened at the low of the day and traded higher 'til a little after 2PM and gave back 75 cents from there to the close.  Volume was very high with 25% of the action occurring in the first 15 minutes of trading.  It looks like traders are respecting $70 as support and the 20 day sma is just below that at $69.71 and the 50 day at $67.43. 

I'm looking for a retest of the 20 day or maybe the 50 day where I think the stock will bounce.  That is my preferred entry. If it does not pullback but instead moves on toward the 200 day sma ($76.90) I won't chase it as it failed there the last couple of times.

Weekly options/earnings

Stocks with weekly options that report earnings next week: (most of these have some volatility)

PFE Tues Jan 31 before the open
X Tues Jan 31 before the open
XOM Tues Jan 31 before the open
AMZN Tues Jan 31 after the close
SU Wed Feb 1 before the open
CMG Wed Feb 1 after the close
GMCR Wed Feb 1 after the close
LVS Wed Feb 1 after the close (If you are trading WYNN or MPEL, pay attention.)
QCOM Wed Feb 1 after the close
MA Thurs Feb 2 before the open
PCX Thurs Feb 2 before the open
APKT Thurs Feb 2 after the close
^..^

Evening Thread

The first full post-options week of 2012 is over, not a bad time to take a breather and go over the mixed messages that the market is sending. Let's rest up for next week, which will probably be another news-driven market.

Afternoon Thread

Wait 'til you see her floss.

Morning Thread

It's Friday.  We're dancin'!

Those highs they are talking about on CNBC

CNBC has been rooting for a close above 12810 on the DJIA all day. Didn't happen.

The SP500 still has a way to go to get back to 2008 levels, but we have the longest uptrend in a year working right now.

Afternoon Thread

Morning Thread

DXY0 Daily Chart

UUP Daily Chart

Gator's Chart of the Day: UUP

Today we take a quick look at the UUP which is the ETF that tracks the $US performance.  As a reference I have included the DXY0 (not a tradeable instrument) chart that I showed on Tuesday.

Both charts clearly show the break of support and continued move to the downside.  On the UUP chart you can see that volume surged yesterday on the back of the Fed announcement and Ben Bernanke's press conference.  It's hard to say how low it will go as the action is gappy.  That's because currencies trade nearly 24 hrs/day but UUP trades only from 9:30-4:00 EST.  The bullish configuration (20 above 50 above 200) is still intact but the 20 day has now turned down.

As long as the $US remains weak I expect equities to rise as they have been.  News from the continent regarding the debt of Greece or Portugal or Italy or .... some wacko comment out of Davos could have some serious influence. 

Evening Thread

Uncle Ben has spoken. Did you hear what he said? He does not want your cash in the mattress.

Eurozone? What Eurozone?

Afternoon Thread

We are fast approaching the resistance of the old highs and a look back shows the two trading ranges that each lasted about a quarter..... Is this the Jan-March range?

Morning Thread

Gator's Chart of the Day: MFB

I confess I am not familiar with the product line so this analysis will be limited to a quick look at the fundamentals and then a discussion of the chart.

Retail has done well as a quick glance at the XRT will attest.  MFB has not participated in the move.  It has been basing since the last earnings report which was disappointing.  The 20% drop resulted in a trailing P/E under 11 and a forward P/E under 10 while the PEG ratio is .84.  Analysts have a price target of 24.50.  (All figures from Finviz)

Turning to the chart we see the stock has moved up for 5 days in a row, albeit on light volume.  It is now pushing the upper Bollinger Band and today closed above it and is peeking into a significant gap.  If volume improves and price reaches 19.50 it could move quickly to begin filling that gap.

Earnings are coming so be sure to check for a date before you enter a trade. (I did and found conflicting information.  The company website was silent.)

Evening Thread

This afternoon was all about AAPL and YHOO earnings. WHile we weren't looking AMD, CA, RFMD, FIO, TQNT and others also posted earnings. CA was quite good. FIO not so much. You will have to pick your focal point or it gets a tad overwhelming. "Holy canoli" was MCC response to AAPL earnings. Expect a positive reaction in both AAPL and the QQQs.

Tonight we have the State of the Union speech, and a large group of earnings before the bell tomorrow morning. But the big deal tomorrow will be the FOMC release mid day follwed by Bernanke press conference during market hours. And then there is always Europe floating around in the background .....

Afternoon Thread

I was aiming for JJC - copper. Also someone's initials. I got CCJ by mistake. Notice it has cleared the 200 day moving average and pulled back a tad. 50 day moving average has turned north. URZ in small cap land looks about the same.

Morning Thread

Gator's Chart of the Day: DXY0

This is the daily chart of the U.S. Dollar Index. Some people (e.g. FM traders) refer to it as the dixie.

With Greece and the euro in the headlines I think it's important to take a look at the performance of the green back.  It is still the world's reserve currency and this chart plots its value when compared to a basket of currencies.

The close yesterday put it right on the lateral support line that includes the October high as well as the November intermediate high which was taken out in December and has since become support.  You will also note the trend line (yellow) that tracked rising support quite well until it was broken last week.  Also check the fast stochastic that is just reaching oversold now.

Yesterday the index touched the bottom Bollinger Band which coincided with the 50 day simple moving average.  From there it moved higher to close on the lateral support line.

With the uncertainty in the Euro Zone over resolution of the Greek debt situation and Portugal looming on the horizon I look for the dollar to move higher from here.  This should prove problematic for U.S. equity prices.  I think you have to keep one eye on the buck as you plan your trades.    

Evening Thread

It's all about Europe ... Again.

With China closed for the week it's all about Greece again.  The music is playing and there are not enough chairs for everyone.  Stand by for headlines to make for wild swings.  I will continue to hold relatively high levels of cash until this thing gets sorted out.



Afternoon Thread

SLW daily chart. The green arrow points to Oct 31 which was the MFG announcements of accounting mess, which played havoc with commodities trading in general. SLW went on to form a neat little head and shoulder pattern, but out of that made a nice double bottom, filled the gap and is heading up into resistance. This could make a nice trading vehicle for a while and keep your attention on the precious metals space.

Morning Thread

Gator's Chart of the Day:  WYNN
(Click chart for better view)

This is a stock that I traded profitably last week.  While I currently have no position I think it is going higher and I am looking for a re-entry.

The daily chart shows me that the stock has found a bottom after a 6 month decline beginning in July.  Since mid-December we have printed higher highs and higher lows and now the 20 day sma has turned up.  It made a strong move through 50 day and had consecutive closes above the upper Bollinger Band on good volume.  On Thursday the close was lower than the open on lower volume and Friday was a small decline on very low volume.

I am looking for a bounce to get back in.  It could come as the price comes down to test the 50 day or it may happen nearer the 20 day.  (Those are now 113.20 and 110.93, respectively.)  If it does not bounce before it reaches 105 then I won't take the trade at all.

With market volatility (as represented by the VIX) relatively low options are cheap.  I will be using calls and probably looking for a March strike as I want to keep the position for a couple of weeks or longer.  For an options position I try not let the value of the call drop more than 25% and will set my stop accordingly.  If I were buying the stock my stop would be fairly tight.  Probably no more than $3 below the entry or 104.50, whichever is higher.

Weekend Thread - The 49er's !!!

How many of you fellas thought first of football?
1849 - the California goldrush. In honor of the game later this afternoon, I'm putting up a few charts of the miners (GDX) in comparison to the metal itself (GLD) as this seems to be a topic du jour. (js!) You speculators will have to draw your own conclusions for your prospects. I will say though, the two are trading differently. Let's start with GLD. Gator pointed out that the long term trendline has not been violated. The GLD did go a bit parabolic for a time, but the pullback did no technical damage.


The miner's chart is not quite so straight forward, having overshot to the downside in the '08 fallout, but you can clearly see that recent trading is damaging to the 2+ year trendline.

The recent downtrend in the GLD has been rather clean:

While the GDX shows an accelaeration to the downside:

I'll post two more comparisons within the blog.....

Weekend Thread

Options Expiration Week finished with the bears in hiding. The Nasdaq was marginally red for the first time in days, due to weakness in GOOG and ISRG, but the SP500 and Dow finished green.

Rest up over the weekend, as there is a large group of earnings reports next week, in addition to Obama's State of the Union Speech on Tuesday night, and FOMC meeting and Bernanke press conference on Wednesday. For a more complete list of the events next week, see http://algofighters.blogspot.com/2012/01/morning-thread_1404.html#comment-416987920 provided by the always faithful southern.

Y'all have a good weekend, and remember Miss Etta James who passed on.

Afternoon Thread

Gator's Chart of the Day
(NTAP Daily - Click chart for a better view)

Many of the networking and storage stocks are quite extended.  NTAP has lagged by a day or two in making a significant move so we could see some more upside before it needs a rest.

In November the stock gapped down hard on huge volume and just this week appears to have confirmed support around 33.50.  Wednesday it printed a pretty green candle on average volume with an impressive follow through on Thursday on much higher volume.  The stock closed above the 50 day sma after failing there on multiple tests in December.  The 20 day has just turned up and remains below the 50 and well below the 200.  It is at December resistance but with the 50 day as support I think it can move into the gap. 

Here's one way to trade it: Watch (or set an alert) for a move above Thursday's intraday high of 37.67.  Take an initial position (maybe 1/4 or 1/3 of what you really want to get) and put a stop around 36.75.  That is tight (<3%) but the thesis is the stock is moving up and if it falls it's not moving up.  When you have profits (say +3-4%) the stock will be around 39 and clearly into the gap.  Consider adding there and put a stop at the top of the gap.

  

Morning Thread

Gator - I could see your draft but it didn't post ...

Re-run.

Evening Thread

The SPX finished above 1310 making the bulls happy. The QQQ's were stronger for the nth day in a row. Banks and Tech have been happy.

After hours we had numerous important earnings reports, including from GOOG (disappoints); ISRG beat but was trading down; IBM, INTC, MSFT, AXP, COF also reported. AAPL traded off (425-426) after hours as well.

Afternoon Thread

RICK 15 minute chart as of 11:40

You were warned.

Morning Thread

Gator's Chart of the Day
(Weekly on top Daily on bottom. Click chart for better view.)

Cheniere Energy Inc is a popular stock on the blog so I'm offering my take on it today.

Looking at the weekly chart (top) the November spike leaps out; a big move on the highest volume in years.  It overshot a bit and spent the rest of the year searching for support and finally found it at $8.  This looks like long term support.

Moving to the daily chart (bottom) we see the search for support and it found it just below 8 and just below the 200 day sma.  After this high volume gap down the 200 day sma proved to be resistance for about 2 weeks.  Finally clearing that resistance on above average volume (12/28) the stock based with the 200 day providing support.

Last week LNG started moving up on increasing volume and had it's best day yesterday closing near the high of the day.  This makes it tough to buy right here right now but clearly it has momentum so here is one way you could trade it.  (Just my opinion and I have no position.)

As long as it stays above 10 I think you can take an initial position with a stop around 9.45.  This would be your "core position."  If it continues to run you could add when you have some profit and put subsequent stops just below the prior day's intraday low.

There should be stiff resistance around 12 (even number and you can see it has failed to close that high.)

Evening Thread

Strong day today, with the QQQ's leading. The SP500 managed a close over 1300. Options expiration Friday hasn't whacked too much yet ...

Panther's Chart of the Day

The normal "spring" run in refiners seems to have begun early this year. Normally this happens in Feb. The guys on CNBC are talking "crack spreads." Short hand for refiner profits. They should be dismal for 4th quarter when these guys report earnings, but are already improving.

How do we trade this? UGA (gasoline ETF) is a pretty thin ETF. The refiners themselves are the way to go. The scariest chart right now is VLO, above. We can hope for a pullback to let us in. The weekly chart (above) shows the move in 2011 and why we want in.

Carl Icahn bought 14.9% of CVI recently.

The other "usual" suspects include WNR, TSO, MPC, ALN, HFC (a combination of Holly and Frontier in case you lost track) ... Most of these report earnings in Feb.: VLO reports Jan 31 and I think they are first at bat. MPC reports on Feb 1 and TSO on Feb 2.

Afternoon Thread

Sentimentrader.com

Sentimentrader had an interesting write up yesterday showing the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index. They note: 

"Mark Hulbert's organization looks at the recommended allocation to the Nasdaq among a sample of newsletters.  Currently, they are 62.5% net long that index."

You can see from the chart above that the bulls have struggled a bit the last few times the Sentiment Index was around this level. It's definitely something to be aware of as the Nasdaq Composite nudges up to (and potentially breaks out of) the Oct 2011 high at 2753.

Morning Thread

Gator's Chart of the Day

(Daily chart)

Panera Bread is a stock I have never owned.  It's one that Cramer has featured many times on Mad Money but not recently (as far as I know.)  He did give it a buy in the lightning round yesterday.  (I did not see it but that is how it is shown in the Mad Money recap on Yahoo Finance.)  It was mentioned on IBD's site yesterday around noon.

The stock is in a bullish configuration with the 20 day above the 50 which is above the 200 day simple moving average.  It has been basing since November in about an 11% range from 130- 145.  While it does not quite meet the Fitz criteria of a volatility squeeze (6% width on the Bollinger Bands) it's close.

PNRA has broken above the upper band for the 1st time since early December and volume has been increasing which is a sign of accumulation.  It could just keep going but that is not what I expect.  I do look for another day or two of upside movement and the impatient may wish to take a small position in case it does not pull back.  I think the better entry would be after a small move back to test the breakout (about 145) and then buy the bounce.

I have not checked for an earnings date but you should know when they will be reported BEFORE taking a position.

Evening Thread

Markets gapped up and got weaker after the European close. China numbers overnight were partially to blame for the morning excitement. WHile we closed off the lows of the day, we were unable to close above 1300 on the SP500.

TN favorite copper has been the talk of some commentators.

Afternoon Thread

Lunch time!!!

Morning Thread

Time for some POT

No, it's not in the winner's circle ... more like the penalty box but I think the bottom is in.  Everyday the world population increases and everyone has to eat.  Emerging markets are growth areas for higher calorie diets and that requires fertilizer.  (Jerry Clower would make a killing.) 

The chart configuration tells the story.  This is a turnaround from a down trend.  The 20 day is under the 50 which is under the 200.  First to turn is the 20 (duh, it's math gator) and that's happened.  It will soon intersect the 50 and that could be blastoff time.  Any pullback to the 20 day is a great time to buy but I don't think that will happen.  Now that the stock has closed above the 50 day I think that will be strong support.

We have had 4 strong days in a row.  (Yes I see the red candle but I also see the stock traded down and then finished near the high of the day.)  Volume has also been increasing.  Bottom line: I think it's time and I will be looking to open a position. 

Holiday Blog

Foreign markets are trading up after a weak start - presumably the knee jerk reaction to the S&P downgrades reported after Friday's market close.

Credit Card Companies

V and MA have been the "go to" stocks in this arena for the past few years because they carry no consumer credit risk and make money primarily through swipe fees. The "toll road" method. EBAY is another player in this arena through Paypal. These charts are presently showing a major divergence, in part because MA has greater worldwide (read Europe) exposure. In fact MA got a downgrade from GS this past week for this very reason. Here's the charts.

Note the movement of all 3 stocks on June 29, the date that US swipe fee rules were clarified. I understand that swipe fees rules are presently being considered in Europe and clarity on this issue could move these stocks again.

EBAY reports earnings Wed Jan 18 after the close. Motley Fool article on EBAY: payment processing is where it's at. Paypal president just left to go to Yahoo, fwiw.

V reports earnings Wednesday February 8 after the close.

MA earnings are due Thursday Feb 2 before the open. Hasn't bounced yet. Definitely the weak sister right now. JBTFD?

Sunday Morning

Memo to BAC NE employees

Re: dental plan

We have researched carefully the list of major stockholders as listed on Yahoo! Finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=BAC+Major+Holders We didn't see your names there.

While we have the greatest empathy for your plight, our fiduciary duty is to those shareholders. (Did you notice GS on that list?)

Perhaps you should consider contacting Bill Gates or Warren Buffet for assistance.

Virtually yours .....

Evening Thread

Today's trading was a demonstration in how old resistance (supply) later become support when the market goes back to "test" those areas. There is an acronym for this - JBTFD!

Afternoon Thread

Holding over the long weekend?

Check your positions.  Check the earnings dates.  Be prepared.

Morning Thread

Click on chart for larger size

JPM started the banking sector earnings reports this morning.

Evening Thread



Are you sure I'm seated next to this gentleman?

BahiaBaby: There must be some mistake ....

Flight Attendant: Ma'am, with the equipment change and flight cancellations and .... uh ... just hop over and enjoy the view.  You did get the window.