Thursday, January 17, 2013

Thursday Evening - travelin'


The market continues to move higher in spite of the rather dismal picture that is less than 60 days away.  Can we make it to 1550 on the S&P 500 before a major correction?  Maybe.  It would only take another 9 days of riding and not watching where we are going.

Support and resistance

Resistance

Support

Support - an area where buyers should act
Resistance - an area where sellers should act

Objective S/R includes :
prior bar’s low or high
immediate prior swing low or high
an area of overlapping bars (consolidation)
prior day’s high, low, and close
unfilled gaps
floor trader pivots

These are “objective” because they depend purely on price.

Subjective S/R includes :
moving averages
Fibonacci retracement levels
trendlines

These are “subjective” because everybody has a different idea about which moving average to use, where to place the Fib high and low, and where to draw a trendline.  Not to say that they can’t work as support or resistance.  The 50dma and 200dma are widely watched and some traders will act there.  But, especially on shorter timeframes, I haven’t had very much luck with these.

For me, the prior swing low or high is the area I pay most attention to.  That is where traders have acted before and where they are likely to act again.  There is of course no guarantee that “support” or “resistance” will hold, it’s just an area to closely watch the price action.

[ disclaimer :  there is more than one way to skin a gopher.  Anything that works for you is wonderful and good and you should stick with it ;-) ]


Thursday Morning