Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Tuesday evening /ES


60min chart of S&P e-mini futures /ES

I thought the market would hold that 1445 support today.  It was a pretty good setup for the bulls, but they apparently ran out of ammo.

Good news:
1)  There will be buyers down at 1430, especially if it opens near there.
2)  It’s end of quarter.  Some markup is likely to be attempted.
3)  Tomorrow is Yom Kippur (sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur)

Bad news:
1430 would be a 100% retrace of the prior rally.  That’s generally not good.  Next support around 1420, then the gap at 1400.

Stay away from falling knives until the market finds its feet.


Tuesday afternoon pork


Might want to get your fill of ham this year, because "a world shortage of pork and bacon next year is now unavoidable," according to an industry trade group.
Blame the drought conditions that blazed through the corn and soybean crop this year. 

Just Pour Me another round of that 3rd red eye, Bucky. (Overheard in the Last Chant Saloon)

Gator's Chart of the Day: JPM
I think the general consensus is that Ben Bernanke has the banks backs.  Money will be entering the economy through them to the tune of $40B every month until he's gone or every able bodied man, woman and child has a W-2 or a darned good excuse for not being at work.

Looking at the chart, the white line intersects the vertex of the "W pattern" that JPM completed in January.  I'm viewing that as long term support and I see a bull flag in the 41 area that would suggest a measured move back to just above 45.  I am already long a starter position that I acquired on 9/19 and I want to add to it.

The Trade
Assuming a flat to up open I'll look to add as much as I bought to establish the position which would make it about half full.  If it clears 42.19 I'll fill out the position.  (42.09 is the top of the flagpole.)  My stop on all but the core will be just under 40.