Thursday, August 2, 2012

Thursday Evening

S&P Futures Daily
S&P futures are showing today as the highest daily volume of the September contract... at slightly under 3 million contracts traded. The day session range was about 20 points - which is smaller than I expected to see given the volume. There was that 27 point reversal before the cash market opened though.... and it came on very heavy volume. It's very rare to see that size volume in premarket or afterhours activity. In fact, the initial 15min bar reversal from 8:30-8:45am ET was the highest 15min volume bar of the day. 1357-1365 looks like a heavy volume zone that includes some of that going into the cash open... and then 1378ish looks like the top of the first heavy volume exchange from only the premarket action. I will be watching those levels closely if we start to rally again.

The bulls closed the day above the 20day WMA line, which is currently at about 1359ish (1363ish on SPX). The bears were able to push the SPX all the way to the bottom of that high volume zone between 1355-1375. Short term indicators still look ripe for buying... although they looked similar yesterday, so it doesn't matter until it matters. 10yr & 30yr Treasury futures rallied back up and closed slightly under their 20day WMA lines (again).

I was stopped out of my long positions this morning, and after reviewing the days action, I'm getting a little anxious to get back in. Overall, the day doesn't look that bad, and the 1355-1375 area on SPX is still holding.

Thursday Afternoon


The market was disappointed with Super Mario.  Looks like we had some short covering early on (and that turned out to be unnecessary) and now the bears are having their way.  If you think you have an edge .... maybe you do or maybe you should just have a seat.

Thursday Morning August 2



We are between Fed and ECB.  This SPY 5 minute chart shows where the action was after the Fed announcement. The market reflexively sold off after the announcement.  Most stocks recovered pretty nicely then really sold off hard into the close.


On the weekly chart, SPY looks like it is ready to challenge last years highs. The bearish view is obvious, the bullish view is that we did not sell off much yesterday.  Tomorrow would be day 3 if the market declines. Many times you will see a decline with some kind of turnaround. This could lead to some good buying opportunities.