Friday, July 29, 2016

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Wednesday Thread

Don't feel like you have to force trades today.
Never a bad idea to relax and take it easy.....

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Monday, July 25, 2016

Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread

Click for Larger View
joshin4u: This data is an excellent resource provided by Sentimentrader.com
Their write up below describes the indicator in more detail:

Threshold Return Analysis:

In order to provide more detailed information about our indicators, threshold return analysis has been performed for each. The below data describes the annualized returns for the underlying while the indicator value is above / below the extreme values as well as the returns of the underlying while the indicator is between the extreme values. Note that the returns provided are describing the periods that the indicator is only in the threshold region (e.g., above, between, below).
Location of IndicatorAnnualized Return% of Time
Above Extreme15.0%17%
Between Extremes4.0%48%
Below Extreme3.0%35%

Construction:

The Smart Money Confidence and Dumb Money Confidence indices are a unique innovation that allows subscribers to see, in one quick glance, what the "good" market timers are doing with their money compared to what "bad" market timers are doing. 
Our Confidence indices use mostly real-money gauges; there are few opinions involved here. Examples of some Smart Money indicators include the OEX put/call and open interest ratios, commercial hedger positions in the equity index futures, and the current relationship between stocks and bonds. Examples of some Dumb Money indicators include the equity-only put/call ratio, the flow into and out of the Rydex series of index mutual funds, and small speculators in equity index futures contracts. 
The Confidence Spread subtracts the Dumb Money from the Smart Money. So when the Spread is very high (above 0.25), that means the Smart Money is looking for a rally, and the Dumb Money is looking for a decline; we should expect stocks to rise after those conditions.
When the Spread is very low (below -0.25) then the Smart Money is anticipating a decline and the Dumb Money a rally; we should expect stocks to decline after that.
Note that the "dumb money" is not dumb at all during trends. Most of them are trend-followers, and will get more and more bullish as stocks rise. The "smart money" is mostly comprised of hedgers, and they will sell short as stocks rise. So for much of the time, it looks like we have the terms confused.
But it is when both sets of traders are at extreme positions that they earn their moniker. Dumb Money is most often at their most exposed before stocks decline, and at their least exposed before stocks rally; Smart Money is the opposite.

Friday, July 22, 2016

Weekend Thread

Have a Happy Relaxing Weekend, Enjoy

Friday Thread


Thursday, July 21, 2016

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Monday, July 18, 2016

Friday, July 15, 2016

Weekend Thread



The Heavens Open. Copenhagen, Denmark

Friday Thread


Thursday, July 14, 2016

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Monday, July 11, 2016

Friday, July 8, 2016

Weekend Thread


Gunnison River 2016

A little dirty this year, but the stonefly hatch was in full force!

Friday Thread

Thursday, July 7, 2016

Wednesday, July 6, 2016

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Sunday, July 3, 2016

Friday, July 1, 2016

Weekend Thread

I Live for BBQ!
Happy 4th Of July!!

Friday Thread