Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Tuesday evening - ALXN


ALXN looks ok if it breaks up from here.  I'm not seeing an awful lot of stocks in a good buying position.  They've either run too far or fallen too fast.  A nice market pullback would help the charts set up better.

Tuesday Afternoon - Still looks sunny

FSLR Daily Chart (11:15AM)

The Trade 
I would take a 1/3rd position right here around 30 - 30.50 and put a stop around 29.60.  As soon as the stochastic turns up I'll be looking to add aggressively.  My first target is a test of the recent high (35.60) and if that level does not prove to be significant resistance I would look for a move to 40 and possibly a retest of last year's high (50.20.)  The risk (30.50-29.60=.90) and reward at the initial target (35.60-30.50=5.10) are about 3% down and 16% up.  That's attractive.

Update:  The Stochastics RSI made the move up.  I'm taking it as the buy signal and I added this morning.  If the stock shows more strength into the close I will likely buy some more.

Tuesday - It's sunny ...

Gator's Chart of the Day: FSLR
It's a new term for President Obama and one of the subjects mentioned prominently in his inaugural address was climate change and his intent that the USA take the lead in efforts to address it.  That just screams solar energy projects to me and First Solar is likely to benefit.

The company is not scheduled to report earnings until February 25th and with a forward P/E of only 7.56 they won't have to be stellar to maintain the current price.  With 37% of the float sold short and 5 days required to cover it could pop.  The stochastic says oversold and the price is sitting on support.  I think it's interesting that the taller volume bars on the chart are always green.

The Trade 
I would take a 1/3rd position right here around 30 - 30.50 and put a stop around 29.60.  As soon as the stochastic turns up I'll be looking to add aggressively.  My first target is a test of the recent high (35.60) and if that level does not prove to be significant resistance I would look for a move to 40 and possibly a retest of last year's high (50.20.)  The risk (30.50-29.60=.90) and reward at the initial target (35.60-30.50=5.10) are about 3% down and 16% up.  That's attractive.