Thursday, January 31, 2013

Thursday evening

The Green Arches


Twursday Afternoon - Futureman sez ...

Futureman enlightens the black and white generation
(Click on the picture for a better view.)
Twitter crashed this morning.  Probably because they were thinking of selling themselves to a deep pocket hedgie group and the market gods decided to slap 'em around first.

The market is struggling to find direction and has been on both sides of the flat line multiple times today.  That could mean we have found the top for now ... or perhaps the cruel wench is trying to suck in some shorts.

Thursday and we're going AWAY

Stolen Chart Idea of the Day: AWAY
I saw this idea on FM and I'm going to be watching it so I'll toss it out here for everyone.

WARNING: This is a DrJ recommendation and the stock is NOT cheap.

The stock has a ttm P/E of 195 and a forward P/E of 35 according to Finviz.  They should report February 18th and there is a huge short interest.  Fully 14% of the float is shown as short and that requires almost 19 days to cover.  The analysts have a 28 price target on this one so it is a powder keg looking for a spark.

The Trade
An entry in the 23-23.50 area would be good and a stop just below the 20 day simple moving average will contain the downside risk.  With the focus that FM may have put on this setup it could move very quickly so if you are not willing to "set and forget" or stare at the screen and watch like a hawk this is probably not for you.  Volume on Wednesday was above average and has been increasing each day since last week.

Check the March 25 strike and you'll see tremendous action.  Open interest was 10 (yes t-e-n) and volume hit 6352.

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Wednesday After Market


The indexes were red today and that's different.  We learned the economy contracted (no surprise to some here) and Ben reiterated his intention to keep pumping liquidity ($85 billion/month) to keep inflating the bubbles while congress plays graba$$ instead of working together to make some difficult decisions.  I get the feeling even Ben is getting tired of this.

Texas - Lies and Truths

But they run a budget surplus

A state does not have all of the challenges of a federal government but maybe a closer look at how they are doing it is in order.  There just might be some (many) ideas, methods and programs that can be valuable at a national level.

Good Morning Vietnam

Gator's Chart of the Day: VNM
Apparently, Chinese labor is becoming too expensive and the new China is Vietnam.  It must be true 'cuz I heard talking heads babbling about it just last week.  Judging from the volume in VNM money is moving there and maybe there's a trade to be made.  This fund is probably the safest way for U.S. investors to participate in the rapidly growing economy of Vietnam.

"The investment seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the Market Vectors Vietnam Index. The fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in securities that comprise the fund's benchmark index. The index is comprised of securities of companies which are domiciled in Vietnam and primarily listed on an exchange in Vietnam and which generate at least 50% of their revenues from Vietnam. It is non-diversified."  --- Finviz

The Trade 
The entry should be as near the support line as practical.  I would put my stop just below Monday's low of 21.20.  If the stock opens below the horizontal support line I would not enter unless the price moves down to 19.70ish and bounces.  I would buy that bounce and put the stop just below 19.45.

Since there is no obvious upside target I would stay in the trade as long as volume is above the 50 day average and the price continues higher.  That likely means I would place my stop just below the previous day's low and let the stock take me out when it tires.

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Tuesday Evening - SP-500 Target

SP-500 Daily Chart
The green arrow is my current target of 1550 for the SP-500.  Will we get there?  Probably.  Will it be straight up?  Not likely.

Tuesday Afternoon - Thalia Menninger


If you are old enough to remember black and white TV then you probably recognize Thalia as Tuesday Weld.  She was the most sought after (and aloof) beauty that Dwayne Hickman lusted after in The Many Loves of Dobie Gillis.

Tuesday morning


Monday, January 28, 2013

Monday evening


Monday afternoon

A cautionary tail

Monday Morning


Some world markets are closed today.  The U.S. ain't one of 'em.  Sorry about that.

Friday, January 25, 2013

Weekend thread


In praise of warmer climes and drinks with little umbrellas in them.

Friday afternoon - AAPL can be saved

Apple must hurry if they want the TV market
AAPL continues to trade very poorly (as does Joey T but we'll leave him for another day) and it really looks destined to fill that gap it left in February as it was moving up.  That would mean a chance to get some under 430.  Of course it could get even better.  I did see a Fitz Freebie video and he drew a fairly obvious Head & Shoulders pattern with the neckline at 500.  That suggests 300 is in the not too distant future.  I'd buy a bounce from that level.  Even the Nymph would join me there.

Friday morning


Thursday, January 24, 2013

Thursday evening


Thursday Afternoon - Broken AAPL


You are effin up my company!!!

Apple disappointed and the whackage has been brutal.  The S&P 500 is ignoring that carnage and setting new highs.  Talking heads in Davos have painted a less ugly picture for the Euro Zone and 1550 is a reasonable target now.

Thursday Morning after AAPL Bomb

Gator's Chart of the Day: QCOM
Okay so Apple bombed after market.  Was it because iPhone sales were well below expectations?  Well, no.  They sold a record 47.8 million of them and analysts predicted 47-50 million.  That meant their smartphone sales were up 29% from a year earlier.  QCOM chips are in every iPhone and I think it will present an opportunity as it is selling off a bit on Apple's results.  Samsung smartphones also use QCOM chips and those phones have been taking market share so QCOM should be doing just fine.

The Trade 
After market QCOM was trading just below 64 (green arrow) and that puts it just above the 20 day simple moving average which has been support since it gapped up to start 2013.  I would like to start a position as close to the 20 day as possible or maybe even on a bounce from the 50 day.  If the stock falls below there then the market is likely pulling back and a long position would just be wrong.  Assuming an entry can be found I would put the stop a little under the bounce point, look for a move to the upper Bollinger band and add as it clears the September high of 65.45. The next target would be the March high of 68.87.

Note: Earnings are scheduled for January 30 after market close.


Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Wednesday evening


AAPL dumpling

The numbers came mostly in-line, but they're selling it anyway.  Might have been better if it hadn't run up today.

Wednesday afternoon


Wednesday Morning

Gator's Chart of the Day: ROST
Yes it's retail.  No, I don't know (and don't care) what Cramer thinks about it.  Ross Stores made a year long run uphill from August '11 to September '12 and then fell from grace as it slid from 70 to 52.  December sales reports reversed the down trend and on January 3rd the stock gapped up 5%+ and ran on heavy volume reaching 59.12.  The last 3 weeks have been spent consolidating that move up and yesterday it traded to 59.17 on increasing volume and closed at its highest level (58.87) since the gap.  I think its ready to move higher.

The Trade 
I nibbled some calls on Tuesday when the it traded above 59.12.  Now I'm looking to add if the stock trades to 59.30 and holds that level for 20+ minutes.  My stop (it's a mental stop) is just below 56.06 which is the lowest trade since the gap up.  Price would have to fall through the 20 day and also the 50 day (unless it happens before next week) to trigger the stop.  My initial target is the 200 day simple moving average but I'm really looking for a test of 67.  That was the October high.

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Tuesday evening - ALXN


ALXN looks ok if it breaks up from here.  I'm not seeing an awful lot of stocks in a good buying position.  They've either run too far or fallen too fast.  A nice market pullback would help the charts set up better.

Tuesday Afternoon - Still looks sunny

FSLR Daily Chart (11:15AM)

The Trade 
I would take a 1/3rd position right here around 30 - 30.50 and put a stop around 29.60.  As soon as the stochastic turns up I'll be looking to add aggressively.  My first target is a test of the recent high (35.60) and if that level does not prove to be significant resistance I would look for a move to 40 and possibly a retest of last year's high (50.20.)  The risk (30.50-29.60=.90) and reward at the initial target (35.60-30.50=5.10) are about 3% down and 16% up.  That's attractive.

Update:  The Stochastics RSI made the move up.  I'm taking it as the buy signal and I added this morning.  If the stock shows more strength into the close I will likely buy some more.

Tuesday - It's sunny ...

Gator's Chart of the Day: FSLR
It's a new term for President Obama and one of the subjects mentioned prominently in his inaugural address was climate change and his intent that the USA take the lead in efforts to address it.  That just screams solar energy projects to me and First Solar is likely to benefit.

The company is not scheduled to report earnings until February 25th and with a forward P/E of only 7.56 they won't have to be stellar to maintain the current price.  With 37% of the float sold short and 5 days required to cover it could pop.  The stochastic says oversold and the price is sitting on support.  I think it's interesting that the taller volume bars on the chart are always green.

The Trade 
I would take a 1/3rd position right here around 30 - 30.50 and put a stop around 29.60.  As soon as the stochastic turns up I'll be looking to add aggressively.  My first target is a test of the recent high (35.60) and if that level does not prove to be significant resistance I would look for a move to 40 and possibly a retest of last year's high (50.20.)  The risk (30.50-29.60=.90) and reward at the initial target (35.60-30.50=5.10) are about 3% down and 16% up.  That's attractive.


Friday, January 18, 2013

Weekend thread


Friday Afternoon


The indexes are red as Europe closes.  Surprisingly (at least it surprised me) there have been 434 new highs and 13 new lows even though only 2485 stocks are higher while 3337 are lower.

Don't forget the market is closed Monday.

Friday Morning - Bank on it

Gator's Chart of the Day: BBT
BBT reported yesterday before the open and the stock traded in the green all day. Volume was 54% above average.  (IBD gets warm and fuzzy with just 40% above average.)

The stock is now above the 200 day and peeking into the overhead gap.  I think it will quickly fill that and move on up to test the September high of 34.37.  That's 13%+ to the upside from Thursday's close and I think the risk of a move below 30 is nil.  That offers a 4:1 reward to risk ratio and that's attractive.  This can also be a good longer term position as the stock pays an .80 dividend for a 2.6% yield.

The Trade 
I would buy under 31.30 and quickly fill the position with one more buy if it clears 31.50 and holds for 20+ minutes.  With the position full in a very tight range the stops will also be tight to avoid a significant loss.  I would put a stop on half just below Thursday's low (30.31) and the rest just under the 20 day sma (currently 29.84.)  I would raise the stops as the stock moves up and I would be out if the stock falls below the middle Bollinger band by more than a few pennies since it has not done that since it turned up in early December.

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Thursday Evening - travelin'


The market continues to move higher in spite of the rather dismal picture that is less than 60 days away.  Can we make it to 1550 on the S&P 500 before a major correction?  Maybe.  It would only take another 9 days of riding and not watching where we are going.

Support and resistance

Resistance

Support

Support - an area where buyers should act
Resistance - an area where sellers should act

Objective S/R includes :
prior bar’s low or high
immediate prior swing low or high
an area of overlapping bars (consolidation)
prior day’s high, low, and close
unfilled gaps
floor trader pivots

These are “objective” because they depend purely on price.

Subjective S/R includes :
moving averages
Fibonacci retracement levels
trendlines

These are “subjective” because everybody has a different idea about which moving average to use, where to place the Fib high and low, and where to draw a trendline.  Not to say that they can’t work as support or resistance.  The 50dma and 200dma are widely watched and some traders will act there.  But, especially on shorter timeframes, I haven’t had very much luck with these.

For me, the prior swing low or high is the area I pay most attention to.  That is where traders have acted before and where they are likely to act again.  There is of course no guarantee that “support” or “resistance” will hold, it’s just an area to closely watch the price action.

[ disclaimer :  there is more than one way to skin a gopher.  Anything that works for you is wonderful and good and you should stick with it ;-) ]


Thursday Morning



Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Wednesday evening




Wednesday Afternoon


Maybe AAPL isn't as bad as some traders thought.  Maybe the DELL deal isn't as good as some traders thought.  It's a mixed bag and just because you read something on a blog ....

Wednesday morning


Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Tuesday Evening - The only taste I have is poor

I think he meant AAPL

If not for Apple all of the major indexes would have been green.  Probably the most important development today was the new all-time high for the DJ-20.

Tuesday Afternoon

For West Coast Traders
Believe it or not the S&P-500 futures turned up at 8:25 AM (that's east coast time) and has been trending higher all morning.  Now that Europe is closed we'll see if our market can keep moving up.

Tuesday Morning - Paper, get your paper.

Gator's Chart of the Day: IP
International Paper Co. is a leading indicator of economic activity.  They produce paper (duh) and packaging materials that are essential for moving products.  When their business is strong it means manufacturing and shipping of goods is healthy and likely to continue at the same or an increasing rate.

The stock closed Monday within 6 cents of a multi-year high and volume was nearly twice that of Friday.  The forward P/E is under 12 and the short ratio is 2.4.  BMO Capital Markets reiterated it's "outperform" rating and raised the target from 48 to 56.

The Trade 
An initial buy of a 1/3 position between 40 and 41 with a stop just under the 20 day sma looks to be a good start.  If the stock clears 41.25 with good volume I would make a 2nd buy.  This is not likely to be a fast moving stock so I would wait a day or two (or more) to fill the position.  Earnings are 1/29 before market.

Monday, January 14, 2013

Monday Evening

GLW Daily Chart
Apple struggled today as it fell over 3.5% but did manage to hold 500.  I found it interesting that GLW was actually green even though they are supplying glass for the iPhone 4" display.  Other suppliers like BRCM and QCOM were in the red at the close.

Monday Afternoon - Dedicated to older traders


Market not doing much but it sure feels heavy to me.  XLF struggling and leaders like GOOG and AAPL are scary.  President Obama may have something important to say as the news conference was a surprise.  We shall see.

Monday morning


Friday, January 11, 2013

Weekend Thread

S&P-500 Daily Chart
It may not seem like it but the all-time high is only 105 points above today's close.

Friday Afternoon - Finally ...


The market has been flopping around this morning.  There has not been much strength.  Perhaps it needs a rest too.  The best performing groups have been consumer staples and semiconductors but neither is more than slightly green at 11:40AM

Friday morning


Thursday, January 10, 2013

Thursday evening - IBM


I've-Been-Moved daily

There's a nice clean pullback to the 50dma, with a bottoming tail today on increased volume which took out yesterday's low and reversed.  (tails are colored cyan or magenta if 50% or more of bar).  Buy over today's high, stop under the low.  Easy-peasy trade setup.  But no promises, of course ;-)

[edit: Yahoo says earnings Tue Jan22]

I have a profound personal dislike for the company, so I refuse to trade it long.  I never liked their services or their people.  But that shouldn't bother anybody else.

Look at Jojo's TDC too.  Nice bottoming pattern on that one.

Also rans : MUR, T, ROST

Thorsday Afternoon


The US markets looked strong before the open but buyers quickly shied away after the open and all of the gains in the SP-500 had disappeared by 11:15.  Perhaps the afternoon will be better with Europe closed.  It is possible that traders are concerned over some saber rattling in Asia.  Japan and China are spittin' at each other.

Thursday Morning - Citrix

Gator's Chart of the Day: CTXS
Citrix Systems is in its pre-earnings run.  They announce 1/21 so this will be a fairly short trade unless you want to break Fight Club rules.  Like most software/services companies CTXS has no debt and pays no dividend so this stock moves on cash flow, margins and revenue projections.  It's very liquid with average volume near 3.5 million shares.

The Trade 
I see a couple of possible entries.  A small starter (1/4 position) could be initiated on an up open and then grown quickly if the stock continues higher.  To be safe, place tight stops which are moved up as you fill the position.  Another approach would be to watch for a pullback to about 68.50 and buy (1/3 position) the bounce.  Again you would want to add quickly if the stock continues higher and your initial stop would be back in congestion around 67.25.

Edit: If this chart looks familiar it should.  sysin3 posted it Tuesday after market.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Wednesday evening


Wednesday Afternoon - Escaping ...


The market bounced a bit this morning.  It isn't making a big move and that's good (IMHO) as we do need to work off a bit of an over bought condition and build a bit of a base to move higher.

Wednesday Morning - HLF

Gator's Chart of the Day: HLF
Herbalife has bounced more than 14 points (58%) since Bill Ackman, with an assist from CNBC, announced he had a short position and suggested it could go to zero.  It didn't fall that far but it did move down over 20 points.  I don't know if he has covered yet but I hope he hasn't.

This stock looks like it has more upside but it is so news driven here that it's very risky.  If I had a position I would be keeping a trailing stop on most (maybe all) and using the previous day low to adjust it daily.