Wednesday, October 17, 2012

SPX... back again

SPX Daily
The bulls have rallied us back up to the 1455-1465 area. Will they go for a break out, or are we still range bound? With the Naz and Russell lagging... I have my doubts about a breakout. I'm trying to keep an open mind though. Short term indicators are still looking ripe for selling, but the fact that we didn't see much selling off the setup today is potentially bullish in the intermediate term. Tomorrow is one of the highest probability up days in October:

October 18 is trading day #14
I generally don't pay much attention to these seasonality charts unless there are a string of +70% days, but I thought it was worth posting anyway.

A few bearish things that I'm thinking about going into tomorrow:

  • It's options expiration week and 1450 might be magnetic based on a quick review of open interest on SPY and SPX
  • Short term indicators still look ripe for selling
  • CBOE P/C ratio has been pretty low 
  • Daily chart indicators are a little stretched and could use a down day to take the edge off
  • Sellers were aggressive in S&P and Naz futures today near the highs

Truckin' Wednesday Afternoon

JBHT - Daily Chart (11:20AM)
This could be a good stock to hold for a quarter or two.  The company reported earnings and the market liked them.  The stock has held that gap up an has been consolidating for a week.  I don't think it will be a big mover but there is very little resistance to hold it back so I could be dead wrong about it.

Apple fritters


AAPL 60min


The Fruit is just not making this easy.  There was a perfectly good H&S which I thought might bounce toward the neckline and then break down toward 605.

But nooo, it bounced a bit and then put in a double (triple) bottom near 623.  That's decent support now.

Then today's strong move took out resistance near 647 (pink line).

So, it really ought to go up a bit more.  But it's bouncing right into a metric buttload of sellers in that grey rectangle.

The yellow downtrend line comes in around 660.  The 50dma is 661.  My completely wild guess is that it will stall around there and back off some.  After that, who knows.

My advice is ... leave this one alone except for very quick trades.  I don't expect it to move fluidly in either direction until it sorts itself out.

[ the preceding is a textbook example of "for what it's worth", lol ]