Monday, September 10, 2012

Back inside the bands .... SP-500

SP-500 Daily Chart
It probably felt worse than it really was as some of the popular high beta stocks were red today.  The SP-500 just barely pulled back inside the upper Bollinger band.  There is a lot of news yet to come out this week.  The German Constitutional Court rules on Wednesday and Apple will show the iPhone5 later in the same day.

Tomorrow is 9/11.  Do you remember?

Foot Loose ... put on your Sunday shoes.


FL Daily Chart (11:30)
It's a shoe stock and it continues to run on a breakout from a volatility squeeze.  Volume continues to be good and last week it was well above average.  There are other shoe companies doing well too.  Check out BWS or DSW or NKE.

In the military UA is a very bad thing.

Gator's Chart of the Day: UA
I have not owned this stock since '07 when Rev and I were on opposite sides of a trade on this one.  If you check that section of the chart (not shown) you'll see who did better with that one.  I was long and he was short.  We both made money but my profit was puny and more luck than anything else.

Under Armour consolidated long enough in August that the Bollinger bands got tight enough (4.4%) to qualify as a volatility squeeze.  It didn't last long so the breakout may not have the strength we often see with this pattern but it looks like a profitable trade can be crafted.

The forward P/E is lofty (38) but so is the short interest (19% and 7+ days to cover) and this is the time of year the company's products get a lot of TV exposure. If you don't have a retail stock then maybe this one will fill that void.

The Trade
Thursday the stock made the move out of the squeeze and Friday it continued.  A small commitment could be made right here around 59.60-59.75 and then add if the stock moves through the round number (60) level with no trouble.  A stop lower than 55 may be too tight so be aware your risk is likely to be more than 8%.  Size your position appropriately so the dollars at risk are acceptable.