Friday, April 13, 2012

Friday Evening Thread

THE important number for the week on the SP500 was 1370. Why? 1370 was the 2011 high. It was also the level for the 50 day moving average on Monday, though the 50 day moving average has since moved higher to about 1375. 1370 was also the resistance level back at the end of February (an area perhaps to be known as "the left shoulder").

So where did we close the week? Yes indeedy. 1370. So we are just barely back below the 50 day moving average.

Sector update: JPM and WFC reported earnings this morning, and regional banks were the worst performing sector (KRE) on my list. (Your list may vary. LOL) AAPL was down almost 3% today on volume, and closed below the 20 day moving average for the first time since December. Metals and mining were weak all around, from gold, silver, coal, steel, copper. Energy (oil, OIH) were also weak, though perversely UNG closed up 0.01.

Next week we have many more earnings reports against a backdrop of historical positive seasonality. Clearly we are at an interesting juncture in the market.

Friday Afternoon Thread

Not yet ready but watch: NUS
A nice uptrending stock that we don't talk about.  It's consolidating around the 50 day and probably needs a few more days but it's getting close to the trend line.  a buy around 57 appears in order and you could use a dollar stop for low risk.  No position.

Friday Morning Thread

In these sell-offs, I look for stocks that are weak, but also for stocks that are extra strong. SBUX fits in the extra strong category. I would NOT buy this stock right here, right now. It has just has 2 really big up days in a row. Note the volume on those up days. Big volume. Bigger volume than on the "sell-off" on Tuesday. There are very few charts which have this much action above the 10 day moving average in the last 2 weeks. The last time this stock was in touch with the 20 day moving average was March 7. I would look to buy it on any pullbacks and the closer to the 10 day moving average the better.

I let myself get stopped out of this stock when it barely went below the 10 day moving average last week - but I had a nice run. I would get back in on any pullback, as I believe SBUX has regained its mojo. This is one of Cramer's strong stocks he is pounding the table about right now, and I would rather have Cramer with me than against me on a trade. Earnings are Thursday April 26 after the close.