Thursday, April 5, 2012

Thursday Evening

COT Report - VIX Futures (Sentimentrader.com)
With the recent increase in volatility, I thought it would be interesting to look at the latest COT report on the VIX Futures. It's interesting to note the level of positioning by the commercials. The only other time they had this much long exposure was near the peak of volatility in 2008-2009. So.... if they were heavily long near the peak back then, what does that mean for the VIX going forward? Inquiring minds want to know...

Cash markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday, but equity index futures will be open until 9:15am Eastern Time.

Thursday Afternoon thread

AIG. baron/southern special. Now that baron is out of part of his SMG trade, he has moved on to another devil stock and is making money there. Earnings should be in early May, so the stock has another 4 weeks to run before that worry. Yesterday's move was on heavier than normal volume on an otherwise red day in the market. That means something. I have no position in this stock.

Thursday Morning Thread

Gator's Charts of the Day: CIE STX
CIE
STX
I couldn't decide between these two volatility squeeze candidates so I flipped a coin ... no help ... it stood on edge so you get a twofer today.

Actually the analysis is the same for both.  After a gap up the stocks are trading sideways on average volume just looking for a catalyst.  Although the 200 day moving averages are well below current price the 50 day is providing near term support.

With the long weekend coming it may not be prudent to start new positions but you may want to set price alerts that will bring your attention to a move to the upside (or if you're one of those nasty short sellers, to the downside.)  In any case if the trade develops it seems prudent to put a stop just under the 50 day for a long position or just above it for a short entry.  (I assume the short short position would be established under the 50.)