Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Tuesday Evening Thread

Naz 100 Futures Commercial Hedger Combo

The bulls did a good job today of grinding it up after a weak open. The major indices closed down on the day except for the Naz 100... which closed up about 4 points. Given the reaction by ORCL in the afterhours session, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at the latest COT report for the Naz 100. The chart above is a combination of the large and small contract futures positions of Commercial Hedgers. 

When I look at this data, I wonder if... and at what point... it will have an impact on the uptrend. Over the last few years, these data points have not proven very useful unless at extremes. It appears we are approaching an extreme on this one, and I think it might be an indication we will see a correction fairly soon.   

Tuesday Afternoon Thread

New iPad Accessory
The new iPad is now being offered with a USB 2.0 external cooler.  Prices start at 39.95 for the plain flat black model but for an additional 14.95 you can get it in your school colors.  Just another clever marketing device to drive big bucks to the bottom line.

Tuesday Morning Thread

Gator's Chart of the Day: V
I ran the "constructive consolidation" scan that I picked up at the Worden seminar in Atlanta earlier this month and look what popped to the top of the S&P-500 list.  Visa has been building what some would call a high base and the Bollinger bands have constricted to just 3.8% of the 20 day simple moving average.  Volume has been increasing for the last 5 sessions and yesterday it traded above the upper band before closing just barely inside.  (I know you can't see that but trust me it's 12 cents inside.)


While the 50 day would be a nice buy point the price hasn't touched it in months.  It looks a bit extended but it really isn't.  The 50 is less than 8% below yesterday's closing price.  Barring some nasty news it looks like a right here right now moment.