Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Evening Thread

There was yet another failure to close above the trading range set on Dec
14th. This 'tells' us that the gorilla (seller) is still in the room. If only they would tell us how many shares they need to get off.....



The market continues to grind at the top of the supply area. Choppy action ruled the day. Some back and fill of the gap up days would be healthy structurally.

Afternoon Thread

Morning Thread

Gator's chart of the day: GMCR
(Click on the chart for a slightly better view)
Only 120M shares floating. Add in the 25% short interest and you get 150M. The stock traded 1/3 of that volume on the big gap down Nov 10th.  Over the last two months (almost) the only days it traded as much as the 50 day avg were three consecutive down days (Dec 13-15) so I believe the selling was accomplished.  

There is a decent base that has been built since Dec 14th.  Note the long tail on that candle and the tail on Monday's green candle.  The bears tried to push it down late last week but buyers have begun coming for the stock as evidenced by the volume on the last two trading days.

There was big volume Monday in the Jan45 calls so IMHO the smart money is betting on a very short term pop. (I traded those yesterday for some very fast profits.)  I believe we have a tightly coiled spring that could explode the stock to the upside if it trades above yesterday's intraday high.  That was 48.98.

I'll be watching this one for some fast trading today and possibly holding overnight.