Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Evening Thread

Gold and silver (and alot of other things) sold off today in spite of the European LTRO operations, as Bernanke spoke. The decline in gold was over 5% intraday, and 6% in silver. As this daily chart chows - we pretty much spanned the upper and lower Bollinger bands in 1 day. March Madness may know more than the calendars.

Many charts are quite extended. I noticed some nice 1-day pullbacks in the credit card stocks, and personally would like to see them pull back some more to a better buy point.

Afternoon Thread - Leap Day

Looks good.  Clean and polish and we're done.
Ben took QE3 off the table this morning and the market didn't like it but the $US did.  So far the market has pulled back a little but has not even tested S2 on the SP-500 (1363.29) nor the SPY (136.61.)

If that is all the reaction we get I think we will try for 1400 unless Greece blows up or we see a mushroom cloud in the middle east.

AAPL 5 Minute Chart

Morning Thread - Leap Year Day

FULL DISCLOSURE I'M LONG




DCTH - Is showing a reversal and breakout after a prolonged period of consolidation or low volatility on the daily chart.  The 50dma shows the reversal quite well. It had been basing above the 200 dma and is now breaking out. Many of the financials have a similar chart except they have more of a double bottom.  This is a biotech so be advised.  




This is the weekly chart showing that there is a possibility for a decent move.



This is a 1 week 30 minute chart of DCTH going from a period of low volatility to higher volatility.  You can see my stop on a partial position just under today's low.  I will most likely end up moving my stop closer to $4.50.

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Tuesday Evening

Indices finished up - unless you were looking at the Transports or the Russell .... The SP500 closed above the 1370 level which was the 2011 high, and the Dow closed above 13,000. Among large cap names, AAPL and PCLN were the talk. Oil was down, gold and silver were up. Which hat are you wearing?

Tuesday Afternoon

SP500 presently trading above 2011 highs. Can we close there?

Tuesday Morning

Gator's Chart of the Day: JPM
Yesterday financials were a leading sector and JPM was one of the movers.  The stock looks strong to me as it has completed the W pattern and worked on a base for more than three weeks.  Volume was just about average but it printed a bullish engulfing candle and today it will complete a golden cross.

Monday, February 27, 2012

Evening Thread

Stocks opened lower and climbed back, as traders seem to be in the mode of JBTFD.

Apple has managed to close at a new closing high, and set a new intraday high as well. Somewhat remarkable given the hard reversible on high volume from February 15.

Afternoon Thread

JBTFD .... it's just that easy ... until it isn't.
Higher oil prices and a lack of action by the G-20 was not enough to keep the market down.  Short of a mushroom cloud in the middle east, it just does not appear anything can hold it back for long.  Trends run longer than you think but reversals can come fast and hard.  Don't get complacent.

Morning Thread

Gator's Chart of the Day: FIO
Today I'm taking another look at Fusion-io.  The company has had some new sales announced recently and it has also come to light that they are being used by Facebook and CRM, both high growth companies with demanding storage/access requirements.  More news could come from the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Tuesday (2/28 at 7:05PM EST.)  Over the past 2 weeks a lot of stock has been positioned for possible sale by early investors so we could see some big price moves when the next lock up expires.  That could provide a good entry (or add) point.

The stock gapped down on it's last earnings announcement (Jan 24) and trading last week filled the gap.  Rumors of a take over of FIO by multiple companies (INTC, DELL, EMC among others)  were also circulating and the stock also received another "Najarian pump" from Dr. J. 

The chart shows recent support at the 50 day sma (25.65) with stronger support around 23.  I expect resistance at 30 and even more at 33 which was the announced price for a follow on offering.  Average daily volume has been increasing for the last couple of months and I don't expect that trend to change.

I am looking for an opportunity to start a position but I am also going to wait for the price to come back to the 25 area.

Friday, February 24, 2012

Weekend Thread

Indices finished the week basically unchanged from yesterday though some stocks went up and others went down. Oil only went up. It was a short week this week, but next week has 5 whole trading days. Rest up this weekend for the beginning of March Madness next week.

Afternoon Thread


BIOF daily chart
PEIX daily chart
If you like the bio-fuel stocks these are hot today.  I don't trade them because they have no decent options and even though they are priced like options I don't like tying up my capital for the 3 days required to clear the trade.

Morning Thread

Gator's Chart of the Day: SSEC-X
Today I'm taking another look at China.  I keep hearing the talking heads say China is slowing and will take the world down the drain with it.  The chart says otherwise. 

(I know it takes more than 2 points to make a trend line.  This one actually has 4 and it originates at the April 2011 high but I couldn't get a decent picture when I tried to include them all.)

The reversal that occurred with the tight double bottom in January is clear.  If you want to throw some Fibonacci Retracement lines on it you'll see that 23.6% is 2350 and 38.2% is just below 2500.  On it's current trajectory the index should hit the descending 200 day sma before that.

With the 50 day sma now turned upward and the daily candles pushing the upper Bollinger bands (which are expanding) it looks strong to me.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Evening Thread

Got EBAY? We had a breakout this week, confirmed today, out of a very extended base.

The major averages nudged up against their highs but did not get there. SP500 needs 1370 and closed at 1364. The Q's and Dow 30 were also up. As were oil, gold, and silver.

Afternoon Thread

Textbook volatility squueze: Bollinger bands less than 6% apart. Booyah. I haven't been listening to CNBC, but assume a large part of Dow green is attributable to IBM. I expect resistance at 200.

Morning Thread

Gator's Chart of the Day: WLL
Whiting Petroleum reported earnings after market yesterday.  They beat on the top and the bottom on record level production and increased proven reserves to another company record.  (replaced 274% of 2011 production)  The company raised guidance for Q1 and full year 2012 production.  The stock traded above $58/share after hours. Press release details here: http://tinyurl.com/7fn7ydq

Today (if my math is right) we should see one of those golden cross (50 crossing up through 200 day sma) thingies which puts the chart in a bullish configuration.  The stock is not at a good buy point and I would not be surprised to see some profit taking but I don't look for much of a dip.  Energy has been strong lately. 

I sold 3/4 of my Mar55 calls into the close as a matter of discipline but I will be looking to add to my position.  I will likely look for longer dated calls and move to a higher strike.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Evening Thread

Blog got heated today. This seems apropo.
I got nuttin' to say so y'all have at it.  Get it out of your systems tonight and let's get back to business tomorrow.

Afternoon Thread


Spring training started.  Toes is offering advice.
Market sure seems heavy today.  Silver, Gold, Drug Related Products and Movie Theaters are the leading Morningstar groups.  Financials and Home Builders are trailing the pack.  Good luck.

Morning Thread

Gator's Chart of the Day: TSRA
TSRA 5 Minute Chart
Tessera stock holders puked up their holdings on 4 times average volume yesterday.  With a beta approaching 2 that made for a big move down.

Looking at the 5 minute chart you can see bottom fishers came for the stock in the last 30 minutes of trading.  This is the kind of event that generates 59 Minute trade opportunities.

THE TRADE

1. Watch for the first green candle on a 3 or 5 minute chart. (Aggressive traders can use 1 minute.)
2. As soon as the green candle prints buy the stock (or option if that's your thing.)
3. Immediately put your stop (hard or mental) just under the low of the day.
4. If the stock continues to move up on increasing volume you can add aggressively.
5. If your position is becoming profitable don't let them get away.  Move your stop up.
6. As volume decreases watch for evidence that the run is done.  (A couple of sequential red candles on a 3 minute chart is usually enough for me but your tolerance may differ.)

This can turn into a longer term hold but that is not generally the case for this kind of trade.  The idea was to make money on an overreaction to the event that caused the big drop.  HONOR YOUR STOP!!!

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Evening Thread

The talking heads on the TV were focused on the Dow Jones 30, and in the meantime about 5000 other stocks were trading. The major indices finished essentially flat.

We are presently seeing less correlation than we saw much of last year: some stocks are going up while others are going down. In normal times, this would be healthy. Sector rotation or something. BIDU shown above: too late to sell, probly too early to buy.

Afternoon Thread


Toes is ready, ladies.  Show him your ...
The markets did not jump on the Greece bailout news today.  That's different.  It very well may be that news from the continent cannot be anything but and anchor from now 'til ....  ???

Crude continues to be a drag on transports and if there is no relief soon it may whack the retail sector.

Morning Thread

Gator's Chart of the Day: Crude Oil
Crude has been trading in a fairly tight channel for three months.  The range has generally been from 96 to 103 but after closing at a new high on Thursday it has gapped up and is holding (as of Monday night.)

News that Iran has stopped selling to the UK and France is causing increased pressure to the upside and U.S. gasoline prices are spiking too.  They are already at seasonal highs and news reports are predicting the national average to exceed $4/gal by April.

I expect transports will struggle short term.  They have been lagging of late and these prices will not help them.

Monday, February 20, 2012

Monday Thread

Why am I talking retail? Retailers typically use a fiscal year which is not the same as the calendar year (Christmas!) For this reason, retailers typcially report earnings in the second half of the quarter.

WMT and HD are 2 of the biggest heavy weights and both report earnings Tuesday morning. By the way, both are members of the Dow Jones 30 - so these 2 stocks will move the Dow on Tuesday. Dow 13,000, and new 52 week highs on the SP500, depend on retail.

Two ETFs track retail and these are quite different in their composition. RTH, shown above, is the "BIG Box" ETF, with over 11% in WMT, and over 6% in each of HD and AMZN (and another 5% in each of LOW, CVS and WAG). XRT, on the other hand is very diverse, with no retailer comprising more than 2%, and its largest 3 holdings are WINN, NFLX and PBY.

Friday, February 17, 2012

Friday Evening Thread

Markets survived options expiration mixed, with the Dow Industrials and SP500 up fractionally on the day, but the Dow transports, utilities, Russell, and Nazz all fractionally lower on the day.

Enjoy the weekend and stay safe.

Afternoon Thread

Options Expiration. Three Day weekend ahead. Careful ...

Morning Thread

Thursday afternoon Otto was mentioning MPEL and I was adding to an LVS position at the same time. Most of the casino stocks have nice charts. I can think of 3 reasons: (1) Macao. (2) Las Vegas and Macao have very little to do with Europe. (3) Earnings showed nice gains, though not back to pre-2009 levels. I have posted a weekly chart of Las Vegas Sands, which shows how the stock has been trading in a channel or range between 36 and 48 for a year, and is in the process of breaking out into a new range.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Evening Thread

Whatever bugged Ms. Market yesterday was gone today as we shook off yesterday's reversal. All 10 S&P sectors were higher on the day. Even AAPL closed back above 500 on high volume. The SP500 is not yet back to 2011 highs of 1370, but edging ever closer.

Afternoon Thread

Toes collecting shark teeth.
The SP-500 is trading above 1350 which has been an area of resistance.  A close up here could bring in more under invested hedgies.  The NASDAQ is trading quite well even without the big dog (AAPL) participating.  I'm not as brave as Toes but I am staying long.

Morning Thread

Gators's Chart of the Day: EGY
Vaalco Energy Inc was in the news yesterday.  Angola granted a time extension for production to Sonangol (the Angolan national oil company) in Block 5 (approx. 1.4 million acres offshore.)  EGY has a 40% working interest in this lease. 

The company will report earnings on March 12th so there is time for a trade.  I have no position and I may not buy any. 

"VAALCO Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company owns producing properties and conducts exploration activities as an operator of consortiums internationally in Gabon and Angola; and as a non-operator in the British North Sea. It also has interests onshore in Texas and Alabama; and in the offshore Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast area. The company owns a 30.35% interest in the exploration acreage within the Etame Marin block; a 28.1% interest in the development areas surrounding the Etame, Avouma, South Tchibala, and Ebouri fields; interests in Mutamba Iroru block onshore Gabon; a 40% working interest in approximately 1.4 million acre Block 5 offshore, Angola; and a 70% working interest in 5,214 acres in Sheridan County, Montana. VAALCO Energy, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas."  -- from Finviz

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Evening Thread

NTAP earnings this afternoon. I put some lines and arrows on the chart. Looks like we make another gap tomorrow morning.

Afternoon Thread



GLD. lower highs. current uptrend broken. if you want something to short, here's something. No promises. There's that Greek thing to keep worrying about.

Morning Thread

Gator's Chart of the Day: GLDD
Shipping stocks have been popping and the media is on them.  Fitz says it's too late to buy moves like DRYS or EGLE (several have similar patterns) and I'm not looking to do it either.  This is one I would consider.  (Southern will remember this one.)

"Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation engages in the business of marine construction, primarily dredging, and commercial and industrial demolition principally in the east, west, and Gulf Coasts of the United States. It operates in two segments, Dredging and Demolition. The Dredging segment involves in capital dredging projects primarily consisting of port expansion projects, land reclamations, trench digging for pipelines, channel deepening, tunnels and cables, and other dredging related to the construction of breakwaters, jetties, canals, and other marine structures; maintenance dredging that comprises the re-dredging of previously deepened waterways and harbors to remove silt, sand, and other accumulated sediments; and beach nourishment projects, which involve moving sand from the ocean floor to shoreline locations. ..." -- from Finviz

The stock has cleared all recent resistance and it has nothing to do with the Baltic Dry Index or shipping rates.  Clearly there is increased buying interest and it trades with enough volume that we won't be moving the market around and can easily get in and out.  This would be "day 3" of an up move but I think it has room to take a shot.

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Evening Thread

AAPL intraday today. Position: long some calls. I admit to being AAPL call junkie. (also short some Feb puts.)

Afternoon Thread

Nothin' greater than a gator.
The market looks like it's resting today and decliners are leading advancers (60.9% to 27.3%) but there are 151 new highs and only 21 new lows.

Morning Thread

Gator's Chart of the Day: SSEC-X
I'm draggin' so here's the Dragon. 

Some say that Greece doesn't matter and the real deal is China.  The Shanghai Se Composite Index shows the downtrend that has persisted for more than 10 months.  It looks to me to have put in a tight double bottom that spanned the new year (ours not theirs) and is now moving higher.  Last week it pierced the down trend line and yesterday it it tested it successfully.

Monday, February 13, 2012

Evening Thread

Close over 500. 'Nuff said.

Afternoon Thread

FTNT daily Chart (the day isn't over yet)
So far it is printing a nice hammer after gapping up.  If it trades to 26.61 that would be an all-time high.  The closing high is 26.22.  I'm long Mar28 calls and likely to add if it trades to a new high.

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Monday morning

In honor of Valentine's Day coming up this week I am posting a sweetheart of a chart!


Sunday thread

Baron favorite. I was playing with the drawing tools. I am not sure which one I used, but it works.

Friday, February 10, 2012

Friday Evening Thread

It's the weekend.  Cut loose.

Afternoon Thread

BWLD. Daily chart. New channel. Not same as the old channel. March Madness coming to a location near you. (position long a little common)

Morning Thread

Gator's Chart of the Day: FTNT
With the wide acceptance and accelerating deployment of "cloud services" security has become a very hot area.  Every week it seems we see reports of another company or government site being hacked.

"Fortinet, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides network security appliances and unified threat management (UTM) network security solutions to enterprises, service providers, and government entities worldwide. Its primary UTM solution consists of FortiGate appliance products that provide a range of security and networking functions, including firewall, VPN, antivirus, intrusion prevention, application control, Web filtering, antispam, wireless controller, and WAN acceleration." ... from Finviz

The company reported earnings last week (see the gap up) and even though the forward P/E is 41 the stock has held the gap.  The small pullback to the top of the gap was on much lower volume than before or after the report.  Now we have two up days on increasing volume and the stock took out the closing highs of Nov/Dec.  I think it goes higher.

The Plan
I took a starter position today in Mar28 calls @ 1.05.  I will add on either of two conditions (1) the stock trades above 26.42 or (2) it pulls back to the top of the gap and bounces.  If the stock falls back into the gap by more than a few pennies I will sell the position.

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Evening Thread

LO. Tobacco stock. New all-time high today. Raised dividend. 4 of the top 10 consumer stocks in 2011 were tobacco - because they all pay a high dividend. Position - long common, short Feb and March 100 puts. (I am worn out with AAPL.)

Afternoon Thread

BAC buyers are chewing through the supply zone from the late Aug retest. There is an unfilled gap at the 7.50's I don't have a crystal ball as to whether or not it will get filled, but now is a good time to make an "If, then" PLAN !

Morning Thread

WLL daily chart: Stock closed above 200 day. That's new.

Gator's Chart of the Day: WLL 5 minute

I traded this stock on Wednesday and it worked out very well.  My original position was started on Tuesday as the stock looked ready to make a move to the upside from a volatility squeeze.  (Volume had been very good and it closed very near the high of the day.)  I was watching from the open and when I saw the move above R1 I added (9:50) to the position.  When it cleared R2 I added (9:54) again.  When it stopped going up I got a little nervous and when it printed a second red candle I sold (10:32) the entire position.

I use the daily R and S levels to help me time my entries, adds and exits.  I need them as a crutch for my trading.  Maybe I'll get good enough someday to toss my crutches but like Harry Callahan said, "A man's gotta know his limitations."

The 5 minute chart shows that R1 and R2 defined the highs and lows for the remainder of the session.  I still like stock and now that it has closed above the 200 day simple moving average I will use that as a reference for stops.  I'll reenter on a move above the new R1 (53.97 for 2/9) or a pullback to test the breakout and buy the bounce.